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This week has been noteworthy for the protracted sacking of Valeri Zaluzhny and the appointment of Oleksandr Syrsky in his stead. Some were even speculating that it wouldn’t happen at all. But it did. Meanwhile, on the battlefronts of Ukraine, Russian pressure is intensifying, Avdeevka is close to collapse while Ukrainian shortages in men and materiel are becoming more and more evident. The Ukrainian grunt is suffering, as I will discuss below. Ukraine has committed yet another massive terrorist attack on civilians at a bakery in Lisichansk, killing 28 people and the Kremlin will take the matter up with the UN. In the Middle East, the Gaza ceasefire I reported to be close in my previous update still hasn’t materialised and the Houthis continue to pose a threat to shipping in the Red Sea. The risk of escalation into Lebanon and beyond is very real. In the US, the funding saga continues as one funding Bill is defeated only to be replaced by another. At the time of writing, no money from the US is flowing (officially) to Ukraine but that could change soon. Trump continues to win primaries and is surging ahead of Sleepy Joe in opinion polls. Finally, Tucker Carlson (who I have been following for about six years) has interviewed Vladimir Putin and has been roundly condemned by most Westerners for doing so. It’s been quite an interesting week really.
Russian Issues
Stalingrad - 81 Years On
On the 2nd February, the Russians commemorated the end of the 1942/3 Stalingrad campaign. The battle was one of the bloodiest in history and is considered to have been a pivotal ‘turning point’ of World War Two. Many citizens stayed in the city throughout the battle which lasted for a little over five months.1 Pravda provides more detail and photos here.
Tucker Interviews Putin
Tucker Carlson visited Moscow this week to interview President Putin. Even before the interview was published Carlson faced sanctions from the EU, according to this. He has also suffered the customary accusation of being Putin’s mouth piece - how original! More seriously, however, he has been added to Ukraine’s ‘kill list’.
Here’s a link to Tucker’s interview with Putin: The Vladimir Putin Interview (tuckercarlson.com) (2 hrs). Putin did not say anything that we have not heard from him before but through Carlson he will reach more people throughout the world. You can read the main takeaways from the interview here or here. Putin gave us a history lesson about Russia and Ukraine going back centuries and explained how the CIA backed Maidan Coup, NATO’s eastward expansion, the failure of Ukraine to adhere to the Minsk agreements and the very real military threat from Ukraine - forced Russia to embark on the SMO two years ago. He also made it clear that Russia does not intend to invade other countries in Europe.
Ukrainian Matters
The Zaluzhny Sacking Saga
Seymour Hersh, the veteran US journalist, believes that Z wanted to sack Zaluzhny because he announced a ‘stalemate’ on the battlefronts and because he was suspected of engaging in secret talks with the West to secure a ceasefire/negotiated settlement to the conflict, according to RT. According to Scott Ritter, Zaluzhny has aligned himself politically with the Right Sector which is inspired by Bandera and banned in Russia. Interviewed by an Italian TV channel, Z admitted that the fronts have become stagnant due to problems with arms deliveries. When questioned about Zaluzhny, he said that he wished to replace administration and management personnel in all institutions not just the military:
We need a reset and a new start <...>. This concerns not one person [i.e. Zaluzhny], but a group of managers and not only in the military sector.
But the sacking was delayed because Zaluzhny would not accept his commander’s orders, so it appears. On February 7th, South Front reported that Zaluzhny could be attempting to obtain support from fellow Nazis in the army so that he can challenge the forces that remain loyal to Zelensky. According to Larry Johnson, writing for RT, Zaluzhny has been sparing Nazi units such as AZOV and Kraken from front line service while less ‘prestigious’ forces have been employed as ‘cannon fodder’. He is making sure that his Nazi supporters are not killed.
On February 8th, RT reported that according to Ukrainska Pravda, Zaluzhny has not yet been sacked due to concerns expressed by the security forces (SBU) that the move could lead to civil unrest including riots.
But then, finally, late on the 8th February Zaluzhny was sacked and replaced by Syrsky.
For many, it was not a popular choice since many remember the futility of his defence of Bakhmut which killed thousands of Ukrainians for absolutely no reward.
If you would like some in depth exposition and analysis of this change check out Simplicius. b also covers the sacking on the MoA (9th February).
Mobilization Bill
Apparently, the new Ukraine mobilization Bill was passed on first reading by RADA on February 7th. I’ll report on the Bill next week once I have obtained more detail.
Police Officers to the Front
It is a sign of desperation when police officers are sent to the front due to manpower shortages but that is happening right now in Ukraine. And it is so, so sad to watch a society decay in the way Ukraine has due to the demands of a war that any sane person would have known that the nation could not win.
From This:
To This:
To This:
(I’ve left the nasty bits out)
Dima of the Military Summary channel believes that NATO troops could take their place in providing policing.
NATO Troops To Ukraine?
Pravda is reporting that NATO troops from the UK, Finland, Romania, Sweden and Poland will be sent to the right (west) bank of the Dnieper on the border with Belarus in order to free up Ukrainian troops for the front. On December 15 2023, former Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK Vadim Prystaiko announced a similar plan. This is one of those ‘will they, won’t they’ stories that may or may not come true.
Ukrainians Rotting in Prison
The Guardian published an article recently in which it showed Ukrainian prisoners - i.e. pro-Russian citizens who were labeled as “collaborators”.
One man who was arrested had an “Orc”2 tattoo tattooed on his forehead: he was tortured by the Zelensky regime.
A 30-year-old resident of Chasov Yar was thrown into prison for 15 years along with her 2-year-old daughter. She is terrified that her daughter will be taken away when she reaches 3 years of age.
A 34-year-old teacher from Slavyansk is serving time for trying to escape to his friends in Crimea. Some were arrested for organizing a referendum in Kherson.
A 57-year-old resident of Artemovsk Yuri Tsybulsky explained to the British: “ My parents raised me to fight fascism, and here is fascism’’.
https://t.me/infodefENGLAND/17710
$1 Billions Weapons Theft Ukraine
According to Zero Hedge:
A recent audit found that $1 billion of the $1.7 billion, or 59% ‘in enhanced end-use monitoring designated weapons provided to Ukraine as of June 2023 are “delinquent,” meaning they can’t be accounted for in inventory reports.
No surprise there really. I love the term ‘delinquent’ in this context.
The Poor Ukrainian Soldier
The life of any soldier in this conflict is hard but maybe it is harder on the Ukrainians than the Russians. According to German newspaper, Spiegel, the Ukrainians are short of men and materiel and are facing a vastly superior enemy force, which we all know. Sometimes they are stuck in cold and dirty trenches alongside the bodies of their dead comrades because the intensity of the shelling does not permit them to be moved and buried. The shortage of manpower places extra demands on the soldiers, who have to work harder. And they are tired. Companies are sometimes quickly reduced from 100 to 20 men. One Ukrainian soldiers said that 70% of his battalion was lost in just 14 days. The quality of troop replacements is not good, to say the least. Most have not received adequate training and some are struggling alcoholics too drunk to dig a trench. The Washington Post reports on the troop shortages here. In addition, the brutality of forced mobilisation affects the quality of troops delivered, reluctantly, to the front lines. Only those with money can avoid conscription in this corrupt country. On top of all this, their commander has just been sacked.
Life and Death on the Front Line
One Ukrainian soldier revealed the grimmer that grim reality of the front to a very naive female reporter:
Soldier: Nobody survives at the front. It's impossible to do.
Reporter: Is there a real scenario of how you can survive there?
Soldier: There's no such thing.
Reporter: Why are so many guys sent there? The best of the Ukrainian nation?
Soldier: There are no such people anymore.
I can’t be sure that this is authentic but it is true that Ukrainian manhood has been frittered away over the past two years for absolutely nothing.
You can watch a clip from the interview here.
If you are interested in reading or listening to testimonies from Ukrainian POWs check out South Front’s archive.
Officers Gone
Bernhard (b) from the MoA, who once served in the military, has produced an interesting piece on the shortage of officers in the Ukrainian Army (See MoA 6th February). He notes that one battalion of the 47th Mechanised Brigade has a Lieutenant as its deputy commander when usually a Major fulfills this role. I’ve heard that Simplicius, or was it Dima, is saying that non-commissioned officers are running the show in place of Lieutenants and Captains. It is quite clear that there is a shortage of officers and that in consequence units cannot function adequately. b concluded that:
The Ukrainian army is lacking soldiers and munitions. It is lacking the officers to train and lead them. The Ukrainian state does not have the money to conscript and equip more soldiers. It does not have the officer corp needed to train new soldiers. It does not have the factories needed to produce weapons and munitions. It is high time for Ukraine to give up this unequal fight and to save the lives of those soldiers who are still living. It is high time for Zelenski (and Zaluzny and others) to leave.
Couldn’t agree more.
Inadequate Equipment
Ukrainian soldiers also have to deal with inadequate equipment. Outdated Polish made self-propelled mortars, for example, have to be repaired after each trip and the Ukrainians do not have enough ammunition to feed them.
Low Morale
On February Sputnik reported that according to a Ukrainian officer: ‘You can feel that people are morally and physically exhausted’. Battlefield losses, Russian superiority, lack of manpower and ammunition are all contributing to the general malaise.
Gloomy Prognosis
On top of all this, the prognosis among commentators is not good. Back in December, Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), gave the following forecast:
Ukraine has already lost the ability to carry out offensives, by early spring it will be difficult for the AFU to carry out even local counterattacks, more damage will be caused as a result of [Russian Aerospace Forces] airstrikes. By the beginning of summer, it will be difficult for Ukrainian troops to contain the attacks of the Russian Armed Forces, and as a result, the front will collapse, followed by complete collapse.”
US Aid Collapsing?
To add insult to injury, the US Senate has blocked the latest Bill that would have provided aid to Ukraine. But as I write another Bill that would provide Ukraine with $60 billions and Israel with $14 billion is under consideration, according to Tass. From a Ukrainian point of view, this is a glimmer of hope I suppose but their best option is negotiation.
Ukraine Terror Attacks (i.e. those that target civilians)
Lisichansk Bakery Terror Attack
On February 3rd, the Ukrainians shelled a bakery in Lisichansk (Lugansk). A report from Tass indicated that 28 people have died. A pregnant woman and her five year old child were among the victims. February 4th has been designated a day of mourning for the victims killed the previous day. This is the third large terrorist attack committed by Ukraine in a matter of weeks and it has been strongly condemned by the Kremlin.
2nd/3rd February Overnight
In Gorlovka, two civilians were wounded and in Belgorod region 2 drones were shot down.
The Governor of Belgorod has reported that many villages have come under fire from artillery shells and drones overnight. Some damage was inflicted on houses, cars, power lines and an excavator. The village of Grafovka also suffered mortar fire but there were no casualties. The Two Majors provides more detail here.
4th February
According to the Two Majors:
In Belgorod, Rostov and Volgograd regions, 8 drones were shot down, one of them caused a fire on the territory of the Volgograd Refinery. Our refineries, obviously poorly covered by electronic warfare, became a key target of the AFU.
Later, the Two Majors reported that:
At night, 4 AFU UAVs were destroyed over the #Bryansk region. In the Belgorod region, the village of Demidovka in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, the village of Stary Khutor in the Valuysky urban district were shelled by kamikaze drones. In Donetsk and Gorlovka (DPR), 4 civilians were injured as a result of Nazi shelling.
5th/6th February Overnight
The Two Majors reported that:
At night in the Belgorod region, the city of Gubkin was attacked by UAVs, as a result of a fall with detonation, 4 private residential households were damaged. In the afternoon, the Mukhin farm of the Shebekinsky urban district came under fire from the AFU. An AFU UAV was intercepted over the territory of the Bryansk region. Due to the Nazi shelling of the DPR civilian population, in the settlement of Komsomolsky (Volnovakha district) a woman born in 1962 died.
Here is a more detailed account of the Belgorod attacks provided by the governor.
6th/7th February Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
AFU shelling on the border in the Bryansk region wounded our border guards, one of them was killed. In Donetsk, a city bus was attacked by a drone, without casualties. In Belgorod, 7 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down.
Belgorod was attacked again overnight and the governor reported that two casualties with shrapnel wounds were taken to hospital. Ten cars were also damaged in a parking lot.
7th/8th February Overnight
According to the Two Majors, Belgorod city and Belgorod region came under heavy shelling overnight wounding several civilians. Another two civilians were injured by shelling in Shebekino and the village of Grayvoron was attacked by a kamikaze drone. In the DPR, six civilians were injured by shelling. A more detailed report can be found here.
8th/9th February Overnight
On the evening of the 8th, Belgorod came under attack and there were casualties. One man had his arms and legs blown off and is obviously in a serious condition but still alive as I write. Twelve MLRS shells were destroyed over Belgorod but four more people were injured by shrapnel. Damage was also caused to houses, overhead electric cables and cars. On the evening of the 8th, twelve air targets were shot down on their approach to Belgorod and 9 private households were damaged in the suburbs. In the DPR, four civilians were injured in Gorlovka, Verkhnetoretskoye, Vladimirovka and Donetsk as a result of shelling.
The Air War
F-16s
It appears that the West may fly its F-16s from Romania over Moldova to attack the Russians in Ukraine. Some commentators believe that if this happens, airfields in Romania would become legitimate targets for Russia’s air forces - according to Pravda.
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
I should point out that drone and missiles strikes on Ukraine’s rear areas are carried out every day but are not necessarily reported through the sources available to me.
2nd/3rd February Overnight
According to Rybar:
The Russian army continues to strike critical enemy infrastructure on a daily basis. Kamikaze drones "Geran-2" have targeted two transformer substations in Krivoy Rog, resulting in the shutdown of power for 100 thousand consumers and industrial enterprises in the city. Another attack was carried out on an infrastructure facility in Kirovograd.
4th/5th February Overnight
Fuel storage facilities and steel production works were targeted overnight in Krivoy Rog. The city produces about one third of the steel being used to construct Ukraine’s fortifications.
6th/7th February Overnight
According to the Two Majors:
Our Army hit in Kharkov region a private hotel with two missiles, which housed up to 50 Ukrainian militants, presumably from the Kraken national formation.
On February 7th, the Military Chronicle provided this report:
Since 7 a.m., there has been a massive strike on Ukraine, as well as the latest strikes - this one is aimed at destroying military infrastructure. The missiles were launched from Tu-95ms, Tu-22 M3 and Su-34. Explosions are reported in the Cherkasy and Kirovohrad regions - "Ocean" operates there, where unmanned kamikaze boats are produced, which recently sank our combat boat. Also, a series of explosions in the Khmelnytskyi region, in Kharkiv and the Mykolaiv region. Arrivals are reported at the Yavororovsky training ground. Also under attack are Ship Cherry and Sabir.
According to Rybar, Kiev was attacked overnight causing electricity outages and water shortages. A gun barrel factory was hit in the Dnipropetrovsk region and the Malyshev tank plant in Kharkov came under attack.
The airfield at Ivano-Frankivsk (Lviv Region) was also attacked as a welcome to the F-16s that are due to arrive there sometime soonish. The shipyard at Nikolaev was also attacked.
7th/8th February Overnight
Rybar reported a series of explosions in Kyiv, Novomoskovsk, Pavlograd, Drohobych, and other cities. In Kharkov, an impact was recorded at the Malyshev plant, which now specializes in repairing armored vehicles.
Using missile weapons of various types plus Gerani drones the Russians also attacked Lvov, Mirgorod, Poltava region, Dnepropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankovsk, Kirovograd and Nikolaev.
8th/9th February Overnight
Odessa, Nikolaev, Vinnitsa and Dnepropetrovsk all came under attack overnight.
The Ground War
JDAM - Game Changer
The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) is a device that is attached to ‘dumb’ (or unguided) bomb transforming it into a ‘smart’ (guided) bomb. These have been used extensively in Avdeevka, especially, to great effect. b from the MoA has produced an interesting article explaining how they work and why they have been so effective (MoA, Ukraine Sitrep February 8th).
Russian Mod Reports
w/e 19th January 5645 Casualties, killed and wounded: equipment losses: 417
w/e 26th January 5800 Casualties, killed and wounded: equipment losses: 375
w/e 2nd Feb 6230 Casualties killed and wounded: Equipment losses 356 (including 11 motor boats)
w/e 9th Feb 6030 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 257 (including 7 boats).
The Fronts
Avdeevka
UAV operators and old men are being sent into the city in an effort to prevent its capture by the Russians but the situation is hopeless. Rybar has more here. On the 8th February, Slavyangrad reported:
Russian troops are continuing a potent offensive operation, penetrating the city from the northeast and breaking through the enemy's defenses. They have effectively split the city in two, closing in on the main supply route of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
One Ukrainian soldier said: ‘The situation in the city of Avdeevka is deteriorating. The 'road of life' is only 700 meters away’. Some say the Russians are much closer than this to the ‘road of life’ (i.e. the main supply artery).
I’ve heard other reports suggesting that the Russians are cutting the city in half. Dima reported that the Starlink Service in the city has been jammed so that Ukrainian messages must be conveyed by old fashioned telephone wires.
Kherson - Krynki
There have been a tough battles here and the Russians have struggled with Ukraine’s drone dominance. I should say that there is no point to this encounter beyond its media image value but human beings are out there fighting and dying for nothing more than good press. The Ukrainians continue to ferry soldiers into Krynki and other villages using boats in a forlorn effort to expand the bridgehead.
Marinka - Ugledar
The Russians continue to gain ground outside of Maryinka and Novomikhaylovka where heavy fighting is taking place.
Krasny Lyman
According to Pravda, the Russians are launching an attack on Krasny Lyman which they abandoned to avoid encirclement in the Autumn of 2022. Three key villages must be taken prior to an attack on Lyman itself which will secure the railway that feeds Izyum and Slavyansk. This could be part of a move aimed at providing a ‘buffer zone’ to prevent attacks on Russian border territories.
Zaporizhye - Rabotino - Verbove
The Ukrainians have taken to the defence here, gathering forces and equipment north of Rabotino and Verbove.
Luhansk
Heavy battles are ongoing south west of Kremennaya at Belogorovka where the Russians are beginning to occupy an industrial area.
The Economic War
US Funding to Ukraine
Attempts by Sleepy Joe and his administration to secure congress approval for various Bills that attempt to tie ‘border funding’ with that of Ukraine have so far failed. Robert Kennedy Jnr. said: ‘no funding for Ukraine until we get a secure border, a thriving economy and pay off at least some of our $34 trillions debt’. The latest Senate Bill asks for $60 billions for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel but who knows whether it will get through congress.
World Politics
Sweden Closes Nord Stream Inquiry
Apparently, the investigators have said that the attack was probably carried out by ‘State Actors’ and that the investigation is outside of their jurisdiction - according to Al Jazeera. They also claimed that the investigation has ended because they were unable to identify the perpetrators. Accusing the country that is trying to secure Sweden membership of NATO is not an option, I don’t suppose. Maybe it was aliens just having a bit of fun. The Kremlin will be looking to Germany to complete the investigation, according to Tass.
ICJ Russia v Ukraine
According to Al Jazeera:
The ICJ ruled on Friday that it will not address whether Russia violated the 1948 Genocide Convention by using what Ukraine says were trumped-up genocide charges as a pretext for the war, even if the invasion may have violated international law broadly. Instead, the case will proceed to assess whether Ukraine committed genocide in the eastern parts of the country, as Russia claims – a matter where judges ruled that they have jurisdiction.
On the 5th February, the ICJ made a judgement that Russia’s Special Military Operation in Donbas was not an act of genocide, it was a response to an alleged act of genocide by the Ukrainian regime against the people of Donbas.
The ICJ is yet to report their judgement on whether Ukraine’s acts in Donbas constitute a violation of the Genocide Convention.
Hungary - Sweden - NATO
On February 5th, the Hungarian parliament was due to vote on Sweden’s entry into NATO. But only 51 of the 199 legislators turned up. This meant that the meeting was not quorate so the vote could not take place. Seems that the legislators voted with their feet.
Miss Japan Gives up Crown
Following on from last week, Ukrainian born Karolino Shiino, has given up the crown, not because it was a fix, but because she had a relationship with a married man. Apparently, Japanese beauty queens must be pure as driven snow.
Britannia Rows the Waves
The Royal Navy is not doing well in the Red Sea against the Houthis - so the Telegraph tells us. Ships breaking down or colliding with each other are embarrassing to a once great navy.
Spanish Farmers Join In
On February 6th Spanish Farmers joined the protests against rising taxes, costs and EU bureaucracy. They blocked major highways including some that lead to the French border. You can read more here and you can see some footage here. Bulgarian farmers joined the protests on the 7th February blocking a checkpoint on the border with Romania pouring a milk tank onto the highway.
In their support, port workers are on strike throughout France.
Ursula Responds to the Farmers (with a guilty look?)
‘It’s not my fault!’
Apparently, non-existent ‘climate change’ (i.e. global warming) and those damn Russkies are to blame for the farmers’ woes.
Trump Surging Ahead
The Scary Narrative
Germany
German defence minister Pistorius has been at it again suggesting that Putin will not stop at Ukraine and that his country could be at war with Russia for decades. He advocates building up Germany’s military forces and restocking its arsenal. Germany is also afraid of being abandoned (militarily) should the dreaded Trump come to power, abandon NATO and leave the Germans shivering in their boots.
The emerging Multi Polar World Order (MPWO)
Could the farmers help bring down the Uni-Polar World Disorder?
That’s it for another week. Many thanks for your views, subscriptions, shares likes and comments. The Busker now has over 600 subscribers and is read in 45 states in the US and 52 countries worldwide (according to substack).
Non subscribers can view Updates on Telegram: https://t.me/UWUupdate.
The battle started long before the Russians reached the Volga, as Glantz and House show in their book Stalingrad (abridged version - University Press Kansas 2017).
i.e. Russian
I doubt Russia will target Romanian air fields if F-16s fly from there. There is little need as with the demise of much of Ukraine's air defenses, Russia can use its air assets to shoot down the F-16s from a longer distance than the F-16 can engage Russian jets. In addition, Russian air defense will deal with any remaining F-16s. I haven't seen any real numbers mentioned, either, so there may not be many F-16s to be dealt with in the first place.
As for NATO troops being used to secure the Ukraine-Belarus border, this sounds like the old plan to send Polish troops into Ukraine as a "humanitarian mission". That didn't happen and this one won't, either. NATO is a toothless dog. Scott Ritter in recent interviews has been contrasting NATO exercises in the past with the current one being run this year. He points out that in previous NATO exercises, 1100-1300 tanks took part; this year, it's around 125, ten percent of the previous efforts. This year it's 97,000 troops, the largest one before was 125,000. And most of those are logistics personnel, not combat troops.
He also quoted Medvedev who said bluntly that if NATO tries to go to war with Russia, Russia will simply nuke them. There will be no large-scale ground engagement. As Martyanov likes to point out, NATO command and control from Brussels down will simply be eliminated in the first hours, by hypersonic missiles with conventional warheads. No nukes needed. Any subsequent movement of forces throughout NATO will get the same treatment. An army that has no command and control can't engage any enemy (unless they're already in contact as happened in Ukraine.) So Pistorius is delusional if he thinks Germany can confront Russia. Not to mention that Germany doesn't have the money.
I think that NATO is scroupusly avoiding official troops in the ground and jets starting from their territory. As Putin told yesterday in the Interview, he will only attack a NATO member, If they attack first.
What I could imagine is that Poland will send some Peace keeping troups to Western Ukraine towards the end of the war, who will simply stay there to secure the Former Polish districts in Ukraine for Poland.