The past two weeks have been the most stressfully eventful in a very long time as we have witnessed what could be describe as an unravelling of institutions previously thought to be tight knit and solid. The world is undergoing radical changes and we are privileged to be witnessing them. Someone called it ‘the Great unravelling’. I am not sure whether the world will be a better place when it’s all over but I remain, as always, optimistic. USAID was the first to be exposed as the corrupt and damaging institution it has been for decades. This must be credited to the Trump Team.
But then a chain of events unfolded which began when Trump talked with Putin: the first time the two countries had talked in 3 long years. This was followed by a Munich Security Conference punctuated by VP JD Vance’s reprimand of the Europeans. Vance expressed what many of us have been thinking and feeling about the European Union for years. It appears to me that his speech portended an unravelling of the ‘Union’.
Then on the 18th of February the Riyadh conference slammed the door in the faces of Zelensky and the globalist Europeans in an historic development that breathed life into the carcass that diplomatic relations between Russia and the US had become. Then came pathetic responses from the Europeans and Zelensky. The petulant pro-Ukrainian European leaders convened an ‘emergency’ meeting in Paris where they achieved nothing apart from affirming that:
Ukraine deserves peace through strength. Peace respectful of its independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, with strong security guarantees.
This is Ursula von der Leyen outlining the ‘official’ position of the EU and the UK, which is congruent with that of Zelensky who has recently stated that territorial concessions are unacceptable.
But this is not the position of the Americans and the Russians who met in Riyadh for preliminary negotiations seeking to restore ‘the entire complex of Russian-American relations’, ‘preparing for possible negotiations on the Ukrainian Settlement’ [my emphasis] and laying the groundwork for a meeting between Putin and Trump. At present there are no Russian ambassadors to the US or vice versa.
Both Zelensky and these European leaders were in a state of shock at not being invited to Riyadh although there may be some involvement of Ukrainians and Europeans in negotiations at a later date. But I would be surprised if Zelensky is included because he is no longer President.
In a bid for survival, Zelensky, aided and abetted by Kaja Kallas, attempted to persuade the Europeans that the Russians are preparing to invade. However, Donald Trump was in a position to deny this narrative credibility by simply announcing that Putin wants the fighting to stop. Trump also kicked down the narrative claiming that Ukraine is a democracy by calling Zelensky a dictator who refuses to call elections, who has looted billions and brought his country to ruin. Of course there is no admission of the US’s role in all this but it sends a clear message to Zelensky that his time is up. Bye, bye Z.
We should not lose sight of the fact that the Ukraine conflict is a proxy war between the US/NATO and Russia. These are the main protagonists. This may be inconvenient for puppets such as the EU leaders and Zelensky but this is the reality. Of course, many of Ukraine’s leaders and people will not know this so will feel let down and enraged by Zelensky’s exclusion. There is no doubt that Ukraine has been poorly treated by its ‘allies’. In future, the Ukrainians may feel more bitter towards the US/EU than they will towards Russia.
The US has finally dropped the pretense that it does not support Taiwanese independence as the State Department changes the wording on its website to exclude the phrase: ‘we do not support Taiwanese independence’ - according to InfoDefense. On a positive note, Trump has suggested a ‘Trilateral Agreement’ between Russia, China and the US that would reduce arms spending by 50%.
In the Middle East, the Lebanese government has been preventing aircraft from Iran landing at Beirut airport which has sparked huge demonstrations, including a ‘sit in’ on the road to the airport. The Israelis are constantly breaking both the Lebanon and Gaza ceasefire’s as hostage/prisoner exchanges continue. They are also preventing Palestinians from returning to their homes in Jenin. Clashes continue in Syria where Russia has agreed to reduce its military presence in the country.
On the battlefronts of Ukraine, the Russians continue to advance in many places, including Pokrovsk, Constantinople and Chasiv Yar, while a new Russian offensive appears to have been launched into the Sumy region. To add to Ukraine’s misery, it appears that arms deliveries from the US have been stopped.
Kherson governor Vladmir Saldo has suggested that if Ukraine does not accept Russia’s demand to retain the five oblasts, referendums should be held throughout Ukraine to establish which Oblasts want to be part of Russia. I think this should happen in many regions where the majority speak Russian - whether or not agreement is reached on the five oblasts.
Finally, the terms ‘war of aggression’ and ‘unprovoked full scale invasion’ in relation to the SMO are being deleted from the literature for the coming the G7 meeting. The world has changed.
What a week!
Saudi Riyadh Meeting - 18th February
Russian and US working groups met this week in Saudi Arabia to discuss preparations for the coming Putin-Trump Summit which is scheduled for the end of February. Ukraine will be invited but the Europeans may not. Some believe that the Europeans who reneged on Minsk cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov led the Russian team while US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio fronted that of the US.
The Russians have made it clear from the start that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions will not be part of the negotiations since these Oblasts are now part of Russia. But Russia will insist on Ukraine giving up those sections of the latter two Oblasts that it still occupies. Russia will also insist on Demilitarisation and Lavrov has asserted that there will be no ceasefire to allow Ukraine recovery time. He also insisted that those who were responsible for the growth of militarised, anti-Russian Nazism in Ukraine, should be held to account, alongside those who broke the Minsk agreements. Prior to the meeting, Lavrov said:
Everyone must be held accountable for their actions. When someone has been committing lawlessness for many years, violating their own rules of equality, fair competition, the presumption of innocence, the inviolability of property, freedom of expression and freedom of access to information, all this is trampled on without a twinge of conscience, what is "foreign" is being plundered in violation of all norms of international law, the Nazi regime is being encouraged and weapons are being pumped up in order to kill its own citizens. All this is being done in the hope that we will somehow "slip through" and "sit out" under the "nuclear umbrella." This will not happen anymore. We must be held accountable for our actions. This is already said in the Bible.
The US is clearly among those who must be ‘held accountable’ since the Democrats promoted Nazism in Ukraine and helped organise the Maidan coup - the 11th anniversary of which was marked this week on the 20th February.
I think that Lavrov may also have hinted that territories where Russians could face persecution should also be on the table - though I can’t be certain. This would include oblasts where there are large numbers of Russian speakers such as Odessa, Nikolaev and Kharkov. These are additional territorial concessions that Ukraine may be asked to make. A Russian spokesman said that progress in the talks is possible in the next two to three months. You can read more here and here.
Lavrov and Rubio agreed to:
- Create a consultation mechanism to overcome "irritants" in US-Russia relations
- Appoint high-level teams to begin work on a Ukrainian settlement
- Cooperate on issues of common geopolitical interests
- Cooperate on economic opportunities that may arise after the end of the Ukrainian conflict
- Take steps necessary to normalize the work of diplomatic missions.
The meeting lasted for 4.5 hours.
Embassy staff levels on both sides will be expanded to deal with the increased workload. Putin said the meeting was friendly while Lavrov suggested that the US listened and heard what the Russians were saying.
Zelensky - Mutterings
Volodymyr Zelensky knows that he will not survive politically or physically if a peace agreement is made. The only option that provides hope of survival is the continuation of the war. He will therefore attempt to disrupt the talks in any way he can. His mutterings from a number of interviews reflect these concerns.
It is quite obvious that Zelensky, who feels he occupies the moral high ground, is worried that the US will take the Russian side:
We really need to meet and get support. I think it will be strange if the US policy changes, if Washington moves to the side of Russia. I think the U.S. should not be somewhere in the middle. I think this is a very important moment for the team. Of course it's their decision, but I think the U.S. can't be somewhere in between.
I think the U.S. is on top and they can stop any evil, and in this case they should be on our side. Because they [Russia] attacked us and occupied us. So we are right and they are wrong.
Continuing to flog the NATO dead horse, he declared:
If we are not in NATO, we will need an army of 1.5 millions with modern weapons.
Then he tried to pump up the Russian threat and Ukraine’s right to be involved in talks - which is perfectly acceptable with regard to Ukraine but not the once great Z.
Putin’s phone call with Trump is a threat to the entire world.
Ukraine will never accept the transaction that is concluded without our participation. No decisions in Ukraine without Ukraine, no decisions in Europe without Europe. I will also not remove the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
Zelensky is self medicating as you can see on X.
If the dialogue is in the polite manner that the United States is currently demonstrating towards Russia, then we are not very happy about it, let's be honest, but that's life.
This is simply emotional/childish nonsense. It is not necessary, in fact it would be counter-productive, to be impolite in negotiations - adults know this.
At the Munich conference, when questioned about his own legitimacy in the absence of elections, Zelensky said:
Ukrainians are completely against elections and do not want to talk about it.
He didn’t admit that according to surveys the majority of Ukrainians are in favour of elections and negotiations.
Later he told NBC that if the US pulls out of NATO, Russia will occupy Europe. He said that he is 100% certain of this - therefore losing credibility in the eyes of most people.
He also warned Trump that when Russia invades Europe, US soldiers will be forced to fight:
If there is a rapid invasion, which is quite possible, US brigades on the territory of Europe will be forced to fight. I say to him, these are the lives of your people, because there are somewhere around 100,000 American troops in Europe. They will fight and not all of them will survive because it's a war with the Russians.
It seems that Zelensky is hardening his position on territorial concessions and is insisting that Ukraine will never give up any Oblasts - not even Crimea. I think the Nazis may be whispering in his ear. Maybe the once great Z, is feeling that he has been abandoned by the US. In survival mode, he is courting and frightening the Europeans at the same time. It appears that many Europeans share the hardline - uncompromising Nazi position - as Daniel Davis discusses on his Deep Dive. However, it is clear that Zelensky is ‘losing it’ because there is no rational appeal in sight here. Zelensky is another ‘institution’ that is unravelling.
Trump Responds
Donald Trump ridiculed Zelensky’s claims about a Russian invasion, stating that: ‘no I don’t agree, not even a little bit’ and asserted that Putin wants his country to ‘stop fighting'. What the once great Z fails to appreciate is that Donald Trump considers neo-liberal, globalist Europeans as the enemy, or so Scott Ritter believes. Since NATO is caught up in this ideology, it is also the enemy. The European elites have been attempting to undermine Trump for years, as Scott points out here. Whereas Europe was considered a useful puppet by the Biden Administration, Trump views it as a liability, so it is being abandoned along with Ukraine. I would suggest that the EU is not really strong enough to be an enemy but it could become a rebellious slave which will need to be kept in line.
Zelensky was provided with some sustenance when he visited Erdogan in Turkiye who reassured him of his support but Donald Trump was less charitable in questioning him on why he is not calling elections and demanding to know what happened to the $350 billions he was given. He also accused Zelensky of being an unpopular dictator and reprimanded him for mismanaging the war - according to RT. All this could stir Zelensky’s many enemies into action. The Globalist Europeans are spitting feathers at their Churchillian leader being called a dictator. Well, Zelensky’s term expired last May; he has banned political parties along with the oppositional press - and he is jailing priests. Isn’t this what dictators do?
The Russians held elections during the SMO on Ukrainian soil, so why can’t Zelensky? Don’t forget that the TCC is forcing people into the army at gunpoint and Zelensky has been sponsoring terrorist acts for years. These included the murder of US journalist Gonzalo Lira and Darya Dugina (among many others). He is therefore a terrorist dictator. In response to Trump’s statements, at least one Ukrainian source is suggesting that ‘we have no other choice but to urgently change the government or we will lose the country’.
Trump has claimed that Zelensky’s approval rating is only 4% while the once great Z is claiming 57%. Neither figure reflects the ‘sociology’ I have seen. I can’t remember the exact figure but Zaluzhny is much more popular than Zelensky by quite some margin.
Trump Effigy Burned
The AFU soldiers who burned the effigy said:
We address Donald Trump. Because of you bastard, President Zelensky couldn’t get any weapons. You will never be President again. You are a traitor. You will pay with your blood for what you did.
You can see images on X. These are Azov soldiers who are part of a widespread media campaign against Trump probably organised by the once great Z.
Ukraine Security Increases
According to a Ukrainian source, since the beginning of the year, the staff of the Police Force has increased by 12% while that of the SBU has risen by 9%. This is the largest expansion in recent years and is thought to be a response to growing resistance to mobilisation and attacks on the TCC. There is also concern about organised resistance to the regime.
Ukrainian Dead
According to published obituaries of dead AFU soldiers, losses rose to 572,000 as of 15/2/2025.
It's interesting to note that some published mathematical models gave the figure of 650.000+ Kia since the beginning of SMO. But, for now, obituaries remain the most reliable tracking parameter - according to Slavyangrad.
Western Armaments ‘Disappear’ in Ukraine
According to a Ukrainian source, there are huge discrepancies between the amount of armaments sent to Ukraine and the amount actually used - which will be of no surprise to anyone following events closely. In 2023-4 alone, 30% of armoured vehicles and artillery delivered actually ‘disappeared’ without trace. Sales of Western weapons on the black market are also being discovered.
Ukrainian Woman Blows Herself Up
A Ukrainian woman from Nikolaev blew herself up close to a group of military men, killing one and injuring another six. She was killed in the explosion.
The Hague Confirms Ukraine’s Use of CS Gas
According to the OPCW:
THE HAGUE, February 15. /TASS/. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) says that traces of toxic agents have been spotted in new samples taken in Ukraine. According to a report by the organization’s experts, chlorobenzalmalononitrile, or CS, was allegedly used on the combat engagement line in Ukraine’s Dnepropetrovsk Region in October 2024. The expert opinion is based on various documents, evidence of witnesses and nine samples taken by the Ukrainian side on the site.
AFU Committed Mass Murder
On the 27th January, the Russian liberated the village of Nikolayevo-Daryino on the border between Russia and Ukraine where it was discovered that the Ukrainian army had annihilated the local population including a seven year old boy. According to the Russian MoD:
All this time, more than six months, the residents were held hostage by the AFU, which used them as a human shield, but did not help them, only taunted and killed them. There was only one man left in the village, who miraculously escaped, the rest were killed by Ukrainian militants.
Ukraine Terrorist Attacks
14th/15th February
According to the War Chronicle:
According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, 40 enemy UAVs were shot down overnight. 17 over the Volgograd region, 15 explosions sounded in Volgograd - video in the material. 12 over the Kaluga region, 9 over the Rostov region and 2 over the Saratov region. There are reports of drones over the Tula region and the Black Sea.
Kherson district suffered drone and artillery strikes overnight. In Nova Kakhovka a regular bus was attacked injuring an unspecified number if civilians while in Oleshky another three civilians were injured. In the DPR, one man was killed by an exploding device and another injured by barrel artillery. In Gorlovka, two women were injured by a drone drop on their car. In Belgorod region, one man was injured by artillery fire while another was killed by a drone drop on his house. Drones also caused damage to private dwellings and a manufacturing plant. The districts of Volokonovsky, Valuysky, Krasnoyarsk, Shebekinsky also suffered drone attacks which damaged private dwellings but caused no casualties.
15th/16th February
Belgorod suffered drone attacks overnight causing damage and some casualties.
16th/17th February
According to the War Chronicle:
Krasnodar region was massively attacked by UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at night. In Ilsky, Seversky district, 12 houses were damaged. In Slavyansk-on-Kuban, drones the enemy fell on private residential buildings, a 4-year-old girl was injured.
In Belgorod region, three men were killed by a drone attack on their car while a woman was killed by a drone attack as her vehicle travelled along the Dvuluchnoye - Urazovo highway. A man was injured when a drone attacked his car on the same highway. Private dwellings were also attacked along with an agricultural enterprise where one man was injured. In Gorlovka (DPR) three civilians were injured by artillery strikes. Drones also attacked Rostov.
17th/18th February
Belgorod suffered drone attacks overnight which damaged houses and an agricultural enterprise but caused no casualties. Three civilians were injured by cluster munitions in long suffering Gorlovka (DPR).
Oil Pipeline Attacked
A pumping station on this pipeline was attacked by Ukrainian drones overnight causing the oil flow to be reduced. This oil belongs to Kazakhstan and the pipeline is jointly owned by Russia, Kazakhstan and international companies such as Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell. The oil flow will be reduced until repairs are completed. Maybe Trump will have a word in Z’s ear about this.
18th/19th February
Overnight, 28 drones were destroyed over Bryansk. No casualties or damage was reported. In Zaporozhye, drone drops damaged cars and an ambulance, injuring one civilian while in Kherson two civilians were killed and three injured by artillery strikes.
19th/20th February
Villages in Kherson suffered drone attacks which injured three civilians. One drone struck a gas station. In Belgorod region, drone attacks targeted a bus killing one and injuring another while two more civilians were injured when a drone attacked their car. In Gorlovka (DPR) a drone attack on a taxi killed the driver.
20th/21st
According to the Russian MoD:
Between 15:30 and 19:30 Moscow time, air defense systems on duty destroyed 28 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles:
▪️19 Ukrainian UAVs – over the territory of Krasnodar Krai,
▪️eight UAVs – over the waters of the Sea of Azov
▪️ one UAV over the territory of the Belgorod region
In Gorlovka (DPR) three women were wounded by cluster shells.
The Sea War
16th/17th February
Six drones were shot down over the Sea of Azov overnight.
20th/21st February
Eight drones were shot down over the Sea of Azov overnight.
The Air War (Map)
Russian Missile/Drone Attacks
15th/16th February
According to the Two Majors:
…from 10:50 pm yesterday evening until 5:30 am, explosions were heard in Ukraine: Geraniums and MLRS struck targets in the Zaporizhia and Kharkiv regions, in Nikolaev, Boryspil, Starokostiantyniv, Vasilkov in the Kyiv region and Zatoka in the Odessa region (on video). In addition, our aviation with the UMPK worked along the border in the Sumy region and Kupyansk.
You can view a detailed account of the damage inflicted at Slavyangrad. It included the Nikolaev Thermal Power Plant, bridge infrastructure, logistics hubs, energy facilities and airfield complexes.
16th/17th February
According to the War Chronicle:
Night arrivals of Geranium-2 were noted in Kyiv and the region, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Odessa (port of Izmail) regions. In Nikolaev, the the local thermal power plant was badly damaged.
17th/18th February
Overnight, 50 Russian drones attacked targets in Kiev where Ukraine’s defences caused damage to civilian infrastructure. Cherkasy and Kirovograd also came under attack.
18th/19th February
Overnight, electricity infrastructure, including substations, were destroyed in Odessa while explosions have also been heard in Kiev and Sumy.
19th/20th February
Overnight, Geraniums and Kalibr missiles attacked Kiev. Odessa region was also attacked. According to Slavyangrad:
On the night of February 19-20, 2025, Russian forces launched a massive strike on Ukraine's gas production and processing enterprises, energy facilities and military targets. As a result, gas compressor stations, main pipelines, power substations and military facilities of the enemy were destroyed and put out of operation.
You can read more detail here.
20th/21st February
Overnight, Geraniums attacked Kiev and Poltava while missiles attacked Zatoka in Odessa.
Ukrainian Missile/Drone Attacks
18th/19th February
Overnight, the Syzran oil refinery in Samara region was set on fire by drones.
The Ground War
Russian MoD Reports (excludes Kursk)
w/e 31st January 2025 11,400 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 570
w/e February 7th 2025 10,435 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 745 (record high?)
w/e February 14th 2025 10,570 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 658
w/e February 21st 2025 9,235 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 732
Casualties this week have been the lowest for some time but equipment losses have not reduced.
Kursk
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk direction, the AFU losses amounted to more than 62,450 troops, 373 tanks, 280 infantry fighting vehicles, 233 armoured personnel carriers, 1,962 armoured fighting vehicles, 2,112 motor vehicles, 464 artillery guns, 51 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 22 anti-aircraft missile launchers, nine transport-loading vehicles
The Fronts
Front Line Cats
Kursk
According to the Two Majors:
Commenting on the situation in the Kursk direction, the Supreme Commander reported that units of the 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade crossed the border with the Sumy Region of Ukraine, details were not specified….The North Group forces wrote about persistent battles in Lebedevka, where there is an ongoing advance in the southern part of the village. Heavy fighting is underway in Pogrebki. The enemy does not stop transferring new forces, to the south of Sudzha, the Ukrainian Armed Forces made an unsuccessful attempt to counterattack and were destroyed. The past day saw increased activity by the Russian Aerospace Forces, FAB-3000 were used.
On February 20th, according to Slavyangrad:
After the capture of Sverdlikovo, Russian Armed Forces units are attacking, including in Sumy region: they broke through the border with former Ukraine and advanced to Novenkoye. This threatens access to the main logistical route for the AFU grouping in the Kursk region.
According to the War Chronicle, the Ukrainians have lost hundreds of vehicles in the Sumy Region but I have seen no confirmation.
Kharkov
According to the Russian MoD on February 20th:
In Kharkov direction, units of the Sever Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of one motorised infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and one territorial defence brigade close to Volchansk (Kharkov region).
Kupyansk
Chasiv Yar
According to the Majors:
South of Chasov Yar, enemy channels claim, the Russian Armed Forces advanced on a broad front from the Stupki Tract to the settlement of Kurdyumovka in a section up to 8.5 km wide and up to 1.4 km deep and occupied the remaining part of the settlement of Andreyevka.
By the end of the week the Russians had captured Grigorovka.
Pokrovsk
East of Pokrovsk - Marat Khairullin
By the end of the week, according to the Two Majors:
To the east of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), fighting continues for the junction on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka Highway, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are taking counter-actions. The Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the area of the settlement of Vodyanoye Vtoroye. To the south of Pokrovsk, fighting is underway in the area of Peschanoye.
Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novosyolka
By the 20th February, the Russians were moving towards the villages of Novosyolka and Novoocheretovatoye - according to the Majors. Most of the latter settlement was captured by the 21st February.
Kurakhovo - Constantinople
By the end of the week, the Russians were consolidating their positions south of Constantinople and were advancing on Ulakly.
Zaporozhye
There has been an increase of activity in this Direction as the Russians advance on Orekhov while the Ukrainians are counter-attacking towards Pyatikhatki and Kamenskoye.
The Economic War
US Company Losses After Quitting Russia
According to a report by Geopolitics Live, the Russian negotiators at Riyadh gave their US counterparts a list of losses incurred by US companies that left Russia due to the SMO. A total of $324 billions was lost. The biggest losses were incurred in IT and media at a whopping £123 billions. Exxon and MacDonalds suffered most. You can see the gory details here. Putin knows what ‘arguments’ will appeal to Trump.
Peace Not Good For Some Businesses.
US military companies Lockheed, General Dynamics, RTX, Northrop see share price decline due to possible ceasefire in Ukraine - according to the Two Majors. You can read more at RT.
UK Electricity Inflation
What can I say as a pensioner freezing here in the Scottish Borders? All I can do is spit.
Ukraine Must Account For Aid Received - Bessent
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has sent shock waves through the Ukrainian political establishment by announcing that it must account for all the aid it received. Oh dear, some people will be panicking. The gold at Fort Knox will also be audited soon.
World Politics
Munich Security Conference (14th-16th Feb)
JD Vance
Vance’s speech at the Munich conference is considered by some to be a work of genius designed to unsettle the Europeans and put them in their place so that they do not interfere with Trump’s plans for Ukraine. If that was the intention, it still remains to be seen whether it will be successful or not. There is no question that Vance’s admonishment of the Europeans was designed to inform them that Sleepy Joe Biden and the globalists are no longer in charge:
The threat I'm most concerned about regarding Europe is not Russia, not China, not any other external factor. What I'm concerned about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most important values, the values shared from the United States.
According to Slavyangrad, Vance criticised the Europeans (especially the UK) for prosecuting ‘thought crime’ and not living up to the democratic values they once shared with the US.
Vance condemned the Munich Conference Authorities for excluding ‘far right’ and ‘far left’ parties:
They reflect a certain part of society. We have to dialog with them, but we don't have to agree with them.
He also condemned the Romanians for cancelling an election (due to alleged Russian interference) which he called a ‘departure from democracy’. The US supported this action last December, condemning Russian interference. But Vance would point out that the Democrats were still in charge back then.
But perhaps the most stinging remark Vance made concerned Europe’s failure to reflect the views of its own people: ‘If you are running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you’. Annalena Baerbock, in particular, will be annoyed but not chastised. Not so long ago she said that she would support Ukraine, regardless of what the people want.
Vance and Rubio met with Zelensky at Munich and according to a Ukrainian source the once great Z left the meeting red faced and nervous. Zelensky was asked to produce an adequate proposal for a peaceful settlement. Another Ukrainian source is suggesting that Zelensky is determined to obstruct Trump’s peace efforts.
Vance met with Alice Weidel of the AfD but not with poor old Chancellor Olaf who will be gone soon.
Vance came out with a number of home truths but could be accused of being hypocritical. He overlooked the US’s role in creating a globalist neo-liberal leadership in Europe under Obama and Biden especially. He can hardly preach to others about ‘values’ while failing to stop Israel committing genocide in Gaza. Indeed, the Trump team does not even agree - publicly at least - that genocide has taken place. Morally, support for the predator that Israel has become over the decades is the Trump Team’s Achilles heel. I accept that there may be reasons associated with Realpolitik that could account for this - but it is still immoral to ignore genocide.
Vance’s reprimand could be a signal that globalist cooperation between the US and Europe is over. So while many commentators are celebrating the speech it is important not to get carried away. If you would like a critique of Vance’s speech I would suggest you examine Brian Berletic’s perspective at the New Atlas (16 minutes). Brian suggests that Vance’s speech is meant to create tension as a smokescreen to hide US intentions regarding Taiwan and Iran. Time will tell whether he right or not - I have no idea.
Ursula, Kaja and Annalena
EU Foreign Policy Chief, Kaja Kallas stated that any agreement between Russia and the US which did not involve the EU would be invalid. No Kaja dear, the European Union itself is invalid. Demonstrating her ignorance and stupidity, Kaja claimed that Russia is not suffering any civilian casualties. As someone who records Russian civilian casualties on a daily basis, I find this particularly galling. Furthermore, these are the consequence of terrorist attacks rather than collateral damage. The Ukrainians have been deliberately killing Russian civilians since 2014.
Preaching Ursula, President of the European Commission, said that Ukraine’s failure would weaken Europe and the US. The EU and Ukraine will be at the negotiating table and will demand ‘peace through strength’. It’s a well worn phrase but I’m not sure what people mean when they use it. The sparsity of the applause was more eloquent than the speaker, according to one commentator.
German Minister for Foreign Affairs, Annalena Baerbock condemned Trump for inviting Russia back into the G7/8:
Normal cooperation with this Russia, with the Russia of President Vladimir Putin, is impossible.
No Annalena it is not a physical impossibility, it is a matter of moral choice.
Scholz
Totally oblivious to Russia’s objectives in launching the SMO, Olaf Scholz demanded that the EU arm Ukraine while Russia wants it to be demilitarised. Ukraine must have an army that can resist future Russian attacks, according to Scholz. But the creation of such an army would only encourage the Russians to attack in order to demilitarise the country - you moron. These people are so incredibly dense. He also condemned Trump for negotiating without him - an ex-Chancellor in waiting. Scholz wants to call a state of emergency which would allow Germany to continue funding Ukraine. He described a potential deal between the US and Russia as a ‘dictatorial peace’. In response, White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said: "Chancellor, be careful what you say. The only place Germany deserves in these negotiations is in the dock.." Scholz called Vance’s speech 'irritating'.
Kellogg
US Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg stated that the Europeans will not be involved in negotiations but only hinted that this is due to their pro-war stance. Glenn Diesen outlined the reason he believes Europe’s leaders will be excluded from talks:
…the Europeans have taken such an uncompromising stance in terms of their demands and their refusal to even engage in diplomacy, to the extent they oppose peace negotiations and would likely undermine the talks.
The confessions of Merkel and Hollande that they never intended to enforce the Minsk agreements may also have been a factor. Furthermore, Kaja Kallas, speaking on behalf of the EU, has said that it must ensure that Ukraine continues military action. This is not a good basis for peace negotiations.
Kellogg demonstrated that he is completely out of touch with reality when he said:
There's gonna be things like territorial concessions. We're gonna basically FORCE HIM into actions he's uncomfortable with...break his alliance with North Korea, Iran, China.
The hubristic arrogance is overwhelming. Yang Wi and Jaishankar rail against this thinking below. Kellogg was not at Riyadh so I’m not sure where he fits in to the negotiating process. He met with Zelensky in Kiev on the 20th to deal with the latter’s concerns. The meeting lasted only ten minutes and the US cancelled the joint press conference which usually happens on such occasions.
Paris Summit - February 17th
European leaders met in Paris to discuss the situation in Ukraine following their recent ‘reprimand’ by JD Vance. Everyone who attended the summit is pro-war and opposed to negotiations between Trump and Putin in their absence. Germany, Britain, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark attended along with the NATO secretary-general and the presidents of the European Council and the European Commission. Only countries with a strong military were invited.
Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto, called them a ‘bunch of warmongers'. France and the UK want to send troops to Ukraine as part of a ‘peacekeeping force’ in the event of a ceasefire but most countries were opposed. Russia, which has a UN power of veto over such things, will be opposed to both troops and a ceasefire.
Trump’s Strategy Of Chaos and Control
According to some, Trump appears to thrive on chaos and contradiction but this could be a strategy, according to InfoDefense:
Trump seems to thrive on chaos. Rather than working within established systems, he deliberately dismantles them, using confusion as a tool to assert control. His approach relies on contradiction—allowing, if not encouraging, his own team to send mixed signals, keeping allies, opponents, and the media scrambling while he dictates the narrative. He’s notorious for contradicting himself, making bold claims only to later walk them back in one way or another.
We believe that Trump’s unpredictability isn’t just a quirk—it’s a strategy. By fostering disorder, he forces others to react to him, rather than the other way around.
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump appears to be deploying the same tactics. His often vogue and conflicting statements fuel speculation, while his surrogates push different narratives—some calling for pressuring Ukraine into concessions, others hinting at a tougher stance on Russia. We believe this confusion is intentional. Trump is more comfortable operating in chaos than within conventional diplomatic frameworks.
But Putin won’t be thrown by this ‘strategy’ - if that’s what it is - and will use it against Trump. Scott Ritter takes a similar view of Trump’s strategy as he discusses in this article. But Gilbert Doctorow’s analysis of Trump, Vance and Riyadh is also impressive and worth a look imv.
Elon’s Truth Bombs
At the World Government summit in Dubai, Musk shocked his audience with the following:
I think our course will benefit other countries as well. The new administration is much less interested in interfering in the affairs of other countries. There were times when the US behaved intrusively on the world stage. I think some of those present understand what I mean. But I think that we should, in general… leave other countries to themselves. And let America take care of itself. This is better than inciting regime change around the world.
Protests
Munich
Thousands protested in outside the conference in Munich over the weekend against NATO and arms deliveries to Israel and Ukraine.
The emerging Multi-Polar World Order
China At Munich
Donald Trump doesn’t have a clue about BRICS, as his recent statements have shown. At the Munich Conference, China’s Yang Wi made it clear that the Unipolar World is being replaced by an ‘equal, Multipolar world'. He criticised the rivalry between the big powers which has brough disaster to humanity, including two destructive world wars. You can read more of his statement here.
Jacques Baud points out that one of the main differences between China’s attitude towards competition and that of the US is that for the latter a competitor is an enemy while for the former he is a positive force that can push you to achieve. The US’s approach is that of an Empire accustomed to settling differences by force. This is fine when the Empire is strong and in its prime: but this is not where the US Empire is right now. Baud also points out that in its years of dominance the West (mainly the US and Europe) focused on making money rather than making themselves better whereas during the same period China and others have focused on the latter. The Ukraine conflict has demonstrated this in terms of military development where Russia has revealed the inferior nature of Western weaponry on the battlefield.
Jaishankar At Munich
At Munich, India's Foreign Minister Jaishankar criticised the West's liberal hegemony:
I do think different societies have their own cultures, their own values their, own ways of doing things. And the idea that there is some kind of universe with one truth, one judgement and one norm, that should be preached, propagated evaluated and judged, I think that is one of the big issues we are having today in politics.
It is done by think tanks it's done by people who do ratings, it is done by newspapers, I think there is a reaction in many parts of the world to self appointed custodians people who never fought a election, who have nothing to do with democracy actually telling the rest of the world what is right and what is wrong in democracy.
China v US Share of Global Trade
It’s been another eventful week which has kept me very busy. Thanks for your views, subscriptions, shares, restacks, likes, follows and comments. Have a good week. Best Rob
I wanted to add that your substack shows up just how awful the mainstream media has become. Excellent, invaluable work.
It seems there are a number of key drivers here…1.DJT clearly doesn’t like the way the EU leadership has been so cosy with Biden's administration, and the long standing underfunding of NATO by its principal beneficiaries has been a Trump gripe for ages. Z didn’t help himself by effectively appearing on the campaign trail for Sleazy Joe.
2. DJT recognizes the hole that the US economy has been driven into, not least by enormous military expenditure (to little effect), and if by withdrawing to a regional, North American empire rather than the current Democrat American Global Empire he can strengthen the US and cut costs, it seems to appeal. Hence the wacky comments about Canada, Greenland, Mexico and Panama. A sort of Monroe Doctrine on steroids. 3. The global implications are a push towards three global power blocs, rather as envisaged in '1984’. A new global security architecture. 4. Unlike Rubio, Kellogg's remarks seem a little off script, and he doesn’t seem to be regarded as integral to any peace process. 5. For us Brits, shivering away on Airstrip One, we seem to have the worst possible leadership at the most crucial time in living memory.