Yes - I know. I have done a complete U-turn on providing an update this week. There has been too much happening for me to be inactive and I have been less burdened by other commitments than I thought I would have been. On the battlefield, the Russians have made some small advances in the Kupyansk and Krasny Lyman directions while they continue in their efforts to surround Avdiivka. All Ukrainian attacks have been repelled with heavy losses in men and materiel. The biggest event of the week was the NATO summit in Vilnius where Ukrainians may have been hoping in vain for fast track NATO membership. Very few commentators expected it to happen but now speculation has become fact. Ukraine will not join NATO! I imagine that this decision will inevitably have an impact on Ukrainian morale in spite of the 'palliative' of new tanks, AFVs and Cluster munitions plus a commitment for G7 countries to provide security guarantees some time next year. The decision to supply the cluster ammo is probably the second biggest event of the week and is discussed in detail below. There has been a grudging and growing acceptance by the legacy media that Ukraine will lose the war but there has not been an acceptance that negotiations must take place immediately. The Western media continues to be in denial therefore. More correctly, it is probably being told not to report the logical conclusion that arises out of the impossibility of a Ukrainian victory. Yet their men are still being taken from the streets and fed into the meat grinder.
US Biological Weapons Program
Russia has completed an investigation into the US biolabs in Ukraine and the project they were involved in. The investigation concluded that: "The United States aims to develop a universal genetically engineered biological weapon capable of infecting not only people, but animals as well as agricultural crops. Its use involves, among other things, the goal of inflicting large-scale and irreparable economic damage on the enemy," This is quite shocking but has a ring of truth about it which fits with the US doctrine of 'full spectrum dominance'. The US is without doubt the most dangerous nation on earth. Here's the article from Sputnik: US Working on 'Universal' Genetically Engineered Bioweapon: Russian Parliamentary Investigation - 12.04.2023, Sputnik International (sputnikglobe.com).
Cluster Bombs to Ukraine
The US is sending 155mm cluster ammunition to Ukraine - which is illegal according to the internationally agreed Convention on Cluster Munitions. The US, China and Russia are not signatories to this agreement. The Ukrainians will probably use the ammunition to kill civilians as well as Russian soldiers. Up to 6% of the little bomblets that are part of this type of ammunition fail to explode and can therefore be a hazard to civilians especially children. Ukraine has been using such munitions since 2014 and many children have been maimed by them in the Donbass. In what appears to have been a mistake, Joe Biden admitted that they are supplying 155mm cluster shells because they have run out of ordinary 155mm shells.
The Biden Administration is on record calling the use of cluster munitions a war crime. But Biden himself has now said that the number of non-exploding bomblets is so small that it is unlikely that civilians will set any off accidentally. However, politicians from Spain, Italy, Cambodia and Germany are party to agreements banning cluster bombs and have criticised the US for sending them. Even our own Rishi Sunak has come out and said that the UK 'discourages' the use of cluster bombs, not having the guts to say that since the UK is a signatory to the Convention on Cluster Munitions it condemns the use of cluster munitions as a war crime. I'm not sure how King Charles feels about cluster bombs given his deceased wife's campaign against land mines. Charles met with Biden this week - but sleepy Joe probably didn't mention this sensitive subject.
Cluster bombs will not be effective in fighting the Russians in defensive positions (which they are currently occupy for the most part) because trenches will offer them protection. But the fact that Ukraine is using cluster bombs gives Russia license to use them against the Ukrainians who are trying to advance and are therefore vulnerable to the cluster bomblets. Sergei Shoigu has said that Russia may now start to use this type of munition and that it has not used them hitherto for fear of harming non-combatants. I think Putin will insist that they not be employed where they have the potential to harm civilians.
Not everyone believes that the US is out of ordinary 155mm ammo: some believe that the US could be supplying Ukraine with cluster bombs as a way of escalating the conflict. There are reports of officials in the US military being annoyed with Biden for revealing the 'secret' that the US is running out of ammo for Ukraine. There has been plenty of discussion of this by The Duran; Colonel Douglas MacGregor, Scott Ritter, the MoA and others. Here's Alexander Mercouris's take on cluster munitions: Erdogan Flips, Agrees Sweden NATO for F16s; Ukr Heavy Losses; Russian Advance Kupiansk, Liman - YouTube 23 minutes on.
In spite of some opposition, the US Congress approved the transfer of Cluster munitions to Ukraine. So - when is the use of cluster bombs not a war crime? When the US approves it of course.
F16s to Ukraine?
It is still not clear whether and when the West will provide Ukraine with F16s. But Sergei Lavrov has warned the US, Britain and France (i.e. the Western nuclear armed countries) that since the F16s are 'nuclear capable' the Russian response to their supply will correspond to the gravity of the threat. I'm not sure what he means here but it doesn't sound good.
Putin met with Prigozhin.
Tass news agency has reported that Putin met with Prigozhin and military leaders of the Wagner group in the Kremlin five days after the mutiny of 29th June. Putin praised the contribution of the Wagner group who all pledged loyalty to Putin and Russia. This is very strange to say the least. Some, including Larry Johnson, believe that the 'coup' was staged in order to draw out conspirators against Russia. But I still haven't seen anything concrete that confirms this hypothesis. Having declared loyalty to Russia the Wagnerians are now rejoining the battle while Prigozhin is being investigated for possible fraud. Here's Larry Johnson take on the Prigozhin affair: Ukraine Offensive - Already Failed? w/ Larry Johnson - YouTube first 7 minutes
Long Range Missiles To Ukraine
Macron has sent large numbers of long range 'Stormshadow' type missiles to Ukraine which will enable many more Russian citizens to be targeted. The Kremlin has said that Russia will take 'countermeasures', presumably of a military nature, to address the threat. It seems that the Russians have been quite successful at intercepting the British Stormshadows so they won't be phased by the arrival of the French variety.
Increased Russian Production
Sergei Shoigu has announced massive increases in Russian military production. Production of some military ordnance has increased 17 fold - so it is claimed. I would provide more detail but can't find the article.
The Ground War
The Ukrainian Offensive on Hold
The offensive has apparently been placed on hold until Ukraine receives cluster munition for its 155mm artillery pieces. This is according to Ukraine politician Ilya Kiva. They would probably prefer ordinary ammunition which would be more destructive but beggars can't be choosers. Elsewhere, Zaluzhny has told Z that Ukraine should go on the defensive because it is losing too many men and too much equipment in the course of offensive action. Zaluzhny is concerned that Ukraine could run out of both. He also points out that neither the US nor Russia would pursue an offensive such as this without air superiority, air defence systems and adequate artillery. As I said last week, the Ukrainians are sometimes attacking in smaller groups and without tanks/AFVs - because they are trying to save their armour. But they are gaining very little ground - a field or two - for heavy casualties (probably at least 1200 dead and wounded per day). At no time have the Ukrainians reached the first line of Russia's defence. Some armoured thrusts were carried out by Ukrainian units, for example in Soledar and Artemovsk, on the 10th July. These were probably attempts at superficial gains that would look good to the delegates at the NATO summit when they arrived in Vilnius on 11th July. But all they got was poor 'optics' of burning Bradleys and Leopards. The fact that the Ukrainians were not even capable of pulling off an 'optics victory' for the summit shows that they have shot their bolt. In my view, it really makes sense for them to go on the defensive as Zaluzhny suggests. The gods have ordained that Ukraine will lose this war - just as they ordained that the Confederates in 1863 and the Germans in 1943 would lose. In the case of all three the rational choice of surrender, rather than more death and destruction was not made and will not be made by the Ukrainians. The inevitability of it all is quite sickening really. Many more Ukrainian men will die for the greed, ambition and pride of their puppeteers rather than for their country. But not many of them will know this, sadly.
Russian Offensive Operations
The Russians are now increasing their offensive operations all along the fronts. They are attacking in Zaporizhe direction; the Donetsk direction at Avdeevka where they are encircling the town; in the area of Artemovsk where they continue to prevent Ukrainian advances and in the Kreminna area where it is believed that the Russians plan to advance towards Krasny Lyman threatening the flanks of the Ukrainians defending Slavyansk/Kramatorsk and Siversk. Ugledar and Marinka are also being attacked and a breakthrough in either town would be catastrophic for the Ukrainians. Finally, the Russians are attacking in the Kupyansk area of Kharkiv direction. ukraine_political_map.gif (2200×1555) (worldometers.info). The key town is Lyman which is a command and control centre for the Ukrainians. If the town is captured the Ukrainians will have to retreat north towards Kupyansk where the Russians have considerable forces to trap them. Much of the fighting along the fronts consists of artillery exchanges but small advances are also being made to take advantage of more defensible locations in preparation for Ukrainian attacks. The Russians also withdraw to achieve the same thing. This is Weeb Union's summary of the situation on the 14th July: Multiple Russian Advances Allover The Front | Lyman Offensive? - YouTube. 10 mins
The Economic War
China/Lithuania
China has invested considerably in Lithuania's rail infrastructure as part of its 'China Railway Express' program. Lithuania has benefited enormously from this in the past and would have benefited even more in the future as the railway and freight traffic increased. However, Lithuania has been very critical of China and has developed a hostile attitude towards the country. Lithuania has even recognised Taiwan as an independent country. It is no surprise then that China is now looking for alternative routes and will abandon its cooperation with Lithuania. It may even forcibly remove 200 rail lines in Lithuania if the country continues its hostilities. The rail lines belongs to China. This was a very poor move by Lithuania whose economy is already close to collapse. It is estimated that this very small country will lose $1.2 Billions per year in consequence of its 'divorce' from China.
9 mins
Germany Reduces Benefits
In order to increase its military budget, Olaf Scholz has announced that benefits to refugees who have been in the country for more than a year will be stopped. Also - child benefit for all citizens will be stopped. Surely it is only a matter of time before the German worm begin to turn.
Politics
The NATO Summit - Vilnius, Lithuania 11th-12th July 2023
Secretary General Stoltenberg's opening statement at the Summit made a commitment to send more arms to Ukraine in view of its 'failures'. No security guarantees can be made until Ukraine has achieved victory over Russia, he said, making it clear that if there is no victory there will be no discussion of joining NATO. He warned Russia that its continued belligerence will bring only more NATO to their doorstep. His colleague, Poland's Duda, wanted Polish troops to be involved in a 'peacekeeping mission' once hostilities have ended. But the Poles are like crows crowding above a carcass far below. Clearly, they want their slice of Ukraine - but they won't get it without Russia's permission. The Hungarian foreign minister reminded everyone that no precise dates for Ukrainian's membership have been agreed. Germany, feeling guilty, will now send 25 more Leopard 1's, 40 Marders and 2 Patriot batteries - to contribute to Russia's supplies of scrap metal and Lithuania wants Russia surrounded by military bases.
Sweden will be offered membership of NATO after Erdogan gave his approval but I don't think Russia will have been surprised or unprepared - as Lavrov confirmed in an interview.
But the most important decision made - which was endorsed by Biden and Scholz - was not to grant Ukraine membership or even a roadmap to membership. Looking at this from Zelensky's (and Ukraine's) point of view, it must be devastating. There are no security guarantees and Ukraine must defeat Russia and meet other criteria in order to join. If I were in Z's shoes I would be very angry indeed. Z knows that he cannot win without NATO's full involvement, including boots on the ground - so this must have been sickening for him. He would have to be extremely dense not to realise that he has been sold down the Swanny and must surely know that his goose is now well and truly cooked! Of course, it is also possible that Z does not give a shit.
This means that the extremists in Z's ranks could very easily be tempted into something completely off the rails - such as a dirty bomb. These people have absolutely nothing to lose in the sense that they have no future in Ukraine. They must realise this by now. However, they could be consoled by Western 'compensation schemes' which may include a house in Florida and a magically bountiful bank account.
It must be a very strange feeling to watch your country gradually losing its existence because of your own avarice, hubris, and sheer stupidity. This is a role that Zelensky should have turned down: but he didn't. This is not tragedy in the Greek sense: Zelensky is no flawed hero. Indeed, there's nothing at all heroic about being an actor. As far as I can see, Z has no feeling for his country and any utterances that may show signs of this could easily be pure theatre. Greek heroes cared for their city states and/or their families: that's why Z doesn't qualify as a hero. I hope I am still alive when great and revealing books have been written about all this. Many books will be written about Zelensky but none will genuinely honour him.
The Ukraine delegation at the Summit requested that all military age males evacuated from Ukraine be returned - to replace those lost in the 'Offensive' (Russia's MOD claims that 26,000 have been killed or badly wounded since June 4th).
This photograph may have captured the moment when Z realised that he has been taken for a ride: https://www.moonofalabama.org/16i/zelenskiNATO3.jpg. https://www.moonofalabama.org/16i/zelenskiNATO1-s.jpg. But some cynical commentators (including Dima from the Military Summary channel) believe that this 'photo opportunity' was contrived to garner sympathy for Z and Ukraine among Joe public. I am going with the possibility that Z actually experiences an 'epiphany moment' because it makes a better story.
Maybe Z had seen this interview with Stoltenberg - who is staying on as NATO Secretary General for another year: https://t.me/Slavyangrad/54414. For those who don't have Telegram, he says, quite nonchalantly: "Ammunition is still a problem, the allies have run out of ammunition. In the short term, there is a problem that Ukraine may be short of ammunition, so we have to do everything we can to supply them with as much ammunition as possible". Well that's all right then. Nothing to worry about. It is possible for 'leaders' to get away with making such incredible admissions because most of the audience is so brainwashed that they won't even notice. The legacy media will provide no commentary or analysis of the statement giving the impression that 'there's nothing to see here'. So no one will question why Stoltenberg is not calling for peace or ask how the Ukrainians will be able to continue with their offensive when ammunition is short.
It is being reported (Zero Hedge) that Zelensky threw a tantrum at the Summit feeling he had been let down at not being allowed admission to NATO. He is reported to have tweeted that the decision not to provide a timeline for Ukraine membership was 'unprecedented and absurd'. Our own Ben Wallace accused him of treating the West like 'Amazon' and of being ungrateful (not saying 'thank you' enough) for the immense support the West has provided. I don't think Z has anything to thank the West for and he knows it now. In response to this, Z produced a video which could be viewed as sarcastic because he thanks the West 42 times for its help.
The only security assurances Ukraine received was allegedly provided by the G7 countries - as economic entities rather than as NATO members. But no detail of the nature of these guarantees will be provided until next year - so these assurances are worthless.
Following the Summit, Biden announced that another 3,000 US reservists will be sent to eastern Europe as part of what the US is calling Operation Atlantic Resolve to protect NATO's eastern borders. Some think this is a prelude to boots on the ground.
Here's Garland Nixon's sarcastic assessment of Z as the 'shoe shine boy': SHOE SHINE BOY ZELENSKY HUMILIATED AT NATO CLOWN SHOW - YouTube 1 hour plus. Or you could check out John Helmers take on Z in this short article: https://johnhelmer.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/2882.jpg
Western Leader Approval Ratings
Germany - 40%
Canada - 40%
Japan - 35%
USA - 41%
France 33%
UK 31%
Russia - 81%
Erdogan Betrays Putin
Erdogan received a visit from Z recently after which he released three AZOV commanders whom they had agreed to hold for the Russians until the war ends. It appears that he went back on his word and the Russians are said to be furious. He also said that Ukraine deserved to enter NATO. Some say Erdogan was motivated to do this because the Russians have pulled out of the grain deal he was instrumental in brokering and because they are not fulfilling their promises in arranging a meeting between him and Assad in Syria. The Russian bombing of Turkish troops in Syria may not have helped. John Helmer, of 'Dances with Bears' (
https://johnhelmer.org/
) believes that Erdogan made a deal with Z to refrain from attacking the Turk Stream pipeline in the Black Sea in exchange for the three Azov POWs. Erdogan is scheduled to meet Putin in August. He appears to want Turkey to become part of the 'Schengen' area of 27 European countries who do not have borders with each other so can travel without visas and passports. This would allow citizens and refugees in his own country to travel into Europe. It is possible he could receive this concession in return for allowing Sweden into NATO. Turkey has been trying to obtain EU membership for decades but it is not clear whether this is what Erdogan wants. Some say Biden has agreed to supply Turkiye with F16 fighter jets in return for its cooperation regarding Sweden's NATO membership.
Erdogan and Turkiye have to decide whether they are going to become part of BRICS or the West; they can't have both. Erdogan must surely know that his country's future lies with the former but he appears to be involved in a game in which he is playing one side off against the other in order to seek benefits for Turkiye. Even though Erdogan agreed in principle to Swedish NATO membership I saw a report that he he appeared to backtrack a little when he said that Turkiye's parliament will need to debate this when it meets in October. He also said that Sweden would need to take the anti-terrorists measures he had suggested. Turkiye's approval may also be contingent on the US supply of F16 fighter jets.
Russia has decided that it will display 'trophies' of destroyed Western tanks and AFVs outside of the embassies of NATO countries - lovely touch. These countries are at war with Russia yet still maintain diplomatic relations.
The Emerging Multi-Polar World Order
Foreign Ministers of ASEAN Countries Meet in Jakarta
Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore and Thailand form the Association of South Eastern Asian bloc of Nations (ASEAN) with 600,000 millions people. The group recently met in Jakarta (Indonesia) with representatives of China and has decided to drop the dollar in favour of the coming gold backed BRICS currency. ASEAN made a commitment to advance a comprehensive strategic partnership with China to 'forge long term good neighbourliness while achieving common development and prosperity'. These countries are all involved in China's 'belt and road initiative' and promote peace and stability in the region while making it a 'nuclear weapon free zone'. China, ASEAN Reaffirm Commitment to Advance Comprehensive Strategic Partnership - YouTube 1 min 27 secs.
Protests
Bulgaria
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/bulgaria-call-for-neutrality:9 - 40 secs. Bulgarians are out on the streets protesting in favour of Bulgarian neutrality in the Ukraine war. The Bulgarians are orthodox Christians like most Russians and Russian/Ukrainians.
Sweden
Following Recep Erdogan's apparent approval of Sweden's NATO bid a group of protesters in Sweden burned the NATO Charter. The police did not intervene. Of course the Turkish parliament must vote on this in October and the deal may be off if Sweden does not take the anti-terrorist measures Erdogan recommended and if sleepy Joe forgets to send the promised F16s.
The Media War
Ukraine
The media in Ukraine is really good at propagandizing its own people, only 1% of whom believe that Russia will win the war. 32% believe the war will take 6-12 months to win; 30% believe it will take more than 12 months and 17% believe they will win in several months. These people are in for a very rude awakening indeed.
That's it for this week.
Best Rob
Thanks for posting. Very useful.