Before I begin, I would like to thank all my new subscribers for showing an interest in my work. I have to admit that this was totally unexpected - though very welcome. This is a weekly summary of the conflict and other matters connected to it. It is not a sitrep as such but does contain a brief summary of action on the fronts during the past week. It may suit those who haven’t the time to do much of their own research but want some idea of what is happening. It is by no means exhaustive and is a simple product of my own reading and watching over the week. I may miss some important things but I have minimised that possibility due to the competence, intelligence and thoroughness of the sources I consult.
For those interested in the Ukraine conflict, this week will be remembered mostly for the fallout that followed the Vilnius Summit. When the protagonists had all departed and the dust finally settled it revealed a changed and less hopeful situation for Ukraine. Did the above photo of Z capture the moment when he realised the futility of his situation? It was no surprise therefore that Z and co should seek to release nasty things from their ‘Pandora’s Box’ in frustration - and a terrorist attack on the very vulnerable and visible Kerch bridge was inevitable. That happened on July 17th in the early hours of the morning, killing a married couple and injuring their child. The bridge had to be closed. Also on this day the grain deal expired and Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Tass that the deal would not be renewed because the West failed to keep its end of the bargain. On the battlefronts the fighting is probably just as intense this week as it was last week with the Russian MOD ‘clobber list’ reporting around 600-800 Ukrainian KIA daily. The loss of materiel is also enormous. The Russians have made what could turn out to be an important breakthrough on the Kharkiv front but I would be surprised if the tempo of this war increases any time soon. In other words, there will be no ‘big arrow’ movements by either side: just a slow grind.
Oliver Asks for More
It seems that Zelensky’s ingratitude is beginning to grate on some people’s nerves including our own Ben Wallace. At Vilnius, Z not only wanted more military materiel, he also wanted a promise (at least) of NATO membership. I heard that he also annoyed some people by giving them lists of what military supplies were needed. The Dickensian Oliver should have known that it is not polite to ask for more but he was quite ignorant of the fact. For his part, Z should have known that excessive pleading for more must be accompanied by lots of bowing and plentiful expressions of gratitude. Both Oliver and Z did not realise that asking for more involves an implied criticism that one has not been given enough already. Both forgot their places in the order of things and were quite shocked when their superiors reminded them. Z fluffed his lines with that sarcastic ‘thank you’ video which showed some degree of independence - which is interesting. How much freedom does our puppet actually have I wonder? The next weeks could be revealing in this respect. The same applies to an equally ungrateful Zaluzhny.
Zaluzhny - Out of Control?
In a recent interview with the Washington Post, Valery Zaluzhny asked for F16 fighter jets as an essential component for any offensive along with more tanks, AFVs and artillery. Indeed, Zaluzhny said that he would require ‘air superiority’ in order to conduct a successful offensive. But Zaluzhny is delusional if he believes he can achieve air superiority over the Russians. And the West appears to be getting cold feet about supplying the jets having received a warning from Sergei Lavrov in a recent communique. Zaluzhny himself (if indeed he still exists and was actually interviewed by WAPO) shows no regard for the escalation risks involved. Lieutenant General Douglas Sims of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff has said that the current battlefield situation in Ukraine is not suitable for F16s which are vulnerable to debris on the runways. He said that it is unlikely that F16s will be available to the Ukrainians until 2024. The Netherlands is due to start training Ukrainian pilots on F16s and is waiting for permission from the US which could be stalling on the issue.
Zaluzhny is still insistent on ‘liberating’ Crimea from Putin’s ‘dictatorship’ against the wishes of the 90% or so Crimeans who voted to stay with Russia back in 2014. Zaluzhny is angered by those in the West who are backtracking on Crimea and declared: ‘As soon as I have the means I will do something. I don’t give a damn: no one will stop me’. Such language must worry anyone who is paying attention.
It is clear, then, that Ukraine has become a very dangerous ally indeed for the West: one which (apparently) assassinates people against its wishes, attacks nuclear power stations against its wishes, destroys infrastructure (including the Nord Streams maybe) against its wishes and would even drop a dirty bomb on Moscow if it could. As I said last week, the Ukrainian regime is becoming desperate and I think some of its more belligerent neo-Nazis would destroy the world just to beat Russia. After the dashed hopes of the NATO Summit, I think we are entering a very dangerous period. Zaluzhny’s language demonstrates that the Ukraine worm may have been turned by Vilnius and I would not be surprised if some nasty things begin to happen.
If indeed the Ukrainians have been carrying out terrorist attacks on Russian soil without US approval then the attack on the Kerch bridge could have been a two fingered gesture to the people who betrayed them at Vilnius. But I am not convinced that the Ukrainians have the wherewithal to carry out what appears to have been a sophisticated attack.
This is Alex Mercouris’s take on Zaluzhny: start at 27 minutes.
Sometimes I get the impression that both Zelensky and Zaluzhny realise that their only hope is full NATO involvement: which is the only way that an attempt at ‘air superiority’ could be made. It would fail in my view because the Russian air defence system is too good. But once NATO is fully involved such speculation is merely academic because at that point we will have reached World War Three. In that case, no airfield or Naval base in Europe would be off limits. I’m not sure if Russia would attack the US directly and if it doesn’t do so the US may be reluctant to attack Russia and escalate the conflict in the direction of Armageddon. I don’t think that will happen because there are some on the Western side who still have their sanity. These include General Mark Milley of US Joint Chiefs of Staff who has stated (in a moment of clarity) that it would take years and billions of dollars for the West to achieve parity in air power with the Russians. https://sputnikglobe.com/20230718/milley-it-would-take-years-billions-of-dollars-for-ukraine-to-match-russian-airpower-1111978839.html. However, Milley demonstrated his ignorance of the military situation in Ukraine when he criticised the Ukrainian army - especially the nine recently formed and NATO trained brigades - for not engaging in combined arms tactics as they had been trained to do. He appeared to suggest that Ukraine’s failure to cross minefields rather than Russian air superiority was responsible for its failed offensive. It is true that the Ukrainians were lamentably poor at crossing mine fields but they failed in very difficult circumstances for them. Ukrainian air superiority would certainly have helped - I would imagine. I think many military experts such as Ritter, MacGregor and Brian Berletic, would disagree with regard to the combined arms claim - especially since it was Ukraine’s attempt at using combined arms warfare in the first week or so of their offensive that resulted in colossal losses of men and materiel. 20% of Ukraine’s armour was lost in the first few days. Combined arms warfare in the absence of air superiority will most likely fail - as it has in Ukraine.
Biden’s Escalation
Sleepy Joe, who is dividing opinion among Democrats, has called up 3,000 US reservists to be sent to the east for operation ‘Atlantic Resolve’ which was created back in 2014 in order to deal with the Donbass revolt against the US installed government. This move is much more significant in terms of the escalation value than it is in terms of numbers because it sets a ‘mission creep’ precedent. Maybe the only thing that is urging caution among the neocons is the spectre of Vietnam where the mistaken decision to escalate led to years of costly and unpopular warfare.
The Cupboard’s Bare
Mother Hubbard is beginning to become concerned that the Western military cupboards are looking rather bare. The US is running out of 155mm ammo while the UK has already given Ukraine almost its complete fleet of self-propelled guns. The UK has only 40 Challenger 2 tanks left after sending 14 to Ukraine. Stormshadow missiles are also in short supply. The UK military would now find it difficult to engage in a conflict against any country with a population greater than Wales! Meanwhile Alexander Mercouris is reporting that Ukraine’s shell consumption is gradually falling and is no where near as high as it was during the early days of the offensive. Zaluzhny has said that Ukraine will be out of ammunition by the end of August: hence the desperate supply of cluster munitions by the US. Ukraine lost 20% of its armour during the first weeks of its offensive and 10% thereafter. All of this will need to be replaced with dwindling stocks. Pro-Western news outlet Bloomberg is not confident that the cupboards can be easily refilled by the West: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-16/when-will-ukraine-war-end-ammo-shortage-risks-prolonged-conflict?leadSource=uverify%20wall. There are apparently huge problems with weapons procurement on both sides of the Atlantic as Bloomberg reports here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-14/eu-us-nato-don-t-have-enough-weapons-for-ukraine-to-fight-russia.
Simplicius the Thinker has produced a great piece on the port damage which is worth a look. He also includes a video clip of three US newscasters discussing the shortages of ammunition. They appear ‘crestfallen’, to use an old fashioned term, as they realise that 155mm shells will take 4-7 years to replace; Javelins 8 years to replace and the Stingers a staggering 18 years to replace. Even if you don’t read the whole of Simplicius’s article scroll down and down to the video clip. Their faces are a joy to behold.
Ukraine is also suffering from a shortage of spare parts for it Bradley fighting vehicles, according to the Washington Post. This was reported by Slavyangrad Telegram Channel: https://t.me/Slavyangrad/55902.
Crimea/Kerch Bridge Attacked
The Kerch bridge was attacked once again on the morning of the 17th July. The structure remains intact while the road surface has been damaged by what appears to be an underwater naval drone attack. Two adults were killed in the attack and their child was badly injured. The bridge is one of the biggest ‘optics’ out there so this will not be the last time it is attacked. The railway bridge was not damaged at all and the road bridge was opened to one way traffic within 24 hours. The Ukrainian navy and the SBU are thought to be involved and there is the usual speculation that British Secret Services assisted the attack and/or provided the weapons to conduct it. We may never know who was responsible. According to Scott Ritter, the underwater drones used for the attack were launched from a civilian cargo ship in the Nikolaev area. https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxFhxyAiggGX6i7zm087iCoEOf0J0pC-q3.
Tass report is here: https://tass.com/russia/1647575
Here Brian Berletic examines the over-reaction to the attack on a bridge that has little strategic value because the Russian army is not being supplied via this route (28 mins).
Brian, who is always very methodical in his presentations, points out that Crimea became part of Russia after a referendum in 2014 but the bridge wasn’t built until 2018. So Crimea has managed without the bridge before. Brian also points out that Russia will not engage in an emotional, ‘knee jerk’ reaction to the attack. As I have said before, Russia will be mindful of the need to satisfy the desire for revenge among its population, but it will not let that get in the way of pragmatic good sense. Russia will probably label its next drone/missile attack an act of revenge but it will be nothing of the sort. Putin himself said "Of course, there will be a response from Russia. The Ministry of Defense is preparing relevant proposals’’ (according to RT). The Russians, unlike the Ukrainians, will choose military targets for their ‘revenge’.
The Air War
In addition to the drone attack on the Kerch bridge the Ukrainians launched 28 drones at Crimea. All of the drones were shot down or disabled by electronic means before reaching their targets. Russia’s response to the terrorist attack came on the 18th July when missiles and drones launched from the Black Sea attacked fuel and ammunition depots at Odesa and Nikolaev. Further missile/drone attacks were made on July 19th and on the 20th July. According to the Russian MoD, Port facilities were destroyed (completely destroyed in the case of Odesa) along with Boat and drone manufacturing/ storage facilities, which could have aided the bridge attack. Ukraine’s air defences were impotent. The port of Odesa was being used to transport grain through agreed shipping lines but these routes were also being used to launch drone attacks on the Kerch Bridge and Crimea. It is highly likely, according to some commentators, that these attacks would have been planned in advance so were not really revenge attacks per se. Rather, they were designed to eliminate or reduce the possibility of future attacks on Russian civilians and infrastructure. But they will serve as revenge attack for the Russian people. The Ukrainians responded with a Stormshadow attack which destroyed a large Russian ammunition depot in Crimea and thousands of people were evacuated in the area. Dima provides some good coverage of the attack on Odesa here (first 4 mins):
The Ground War
Cluster Munitions - Putin’s Response
Whereas Putin called the use of these munitions a crime, he also said that Russia would use them in a tit for tat response if Ukrainian uses them first. There’s a little contradiction there Vladimir: branding their use by Ukrainians a crime does not make Russia’s use of them any less of a crime. If this is a warning, it is one that the Ukrainians will find it difficult to heed since they may not have a choice - or - a choice between not shooting any ammo or shooting cluster bombs. https://tass.com/russia/1647439.
Ukraine’s Offensive
The Ukrainian army continues offensive operations but by no stretch of the imagination could it be described as being engaged in an ‘offensive’. Offensives move forward towards pre-determined objectives whereas Ukraine’s offensive operations are not going anywhere because they don’t have the strength to go anywhere. According to The Military Chronicle Ukraine is reinforcing the Orekhovsky area near Rabotino so maybe we can expect an attack from this direction soon. https://voenhronika.ru/publ/vojna_na_ukraine/17_07_2023_novosti_s_ukrainy_krymskij_most_byl_vzorvan_pered_nachalom_vtoroj_fazy_nastuplenija_vsu_karta_boevykh_dejstvij_pjatikhatki_18_video/60-1-0-14212. One attack came on July 18th but was repelled (see below).
The Russian Offensive?
With the massive failure of the Ukrainian offensive and declining material support from the West there is much speculation about a Russian offensive. Some people are panicking that it hasn’t happened yet: that Russia is waiting too long. I can understand this point of view even though I don’t share it. I believe that Russia will wait until the Ukrainian army is closer to collapse before launching a full scale offensive.
According to Weeb Union, the Wagnerians are training the whole Belorussian army in Belarus and will soon have a force of 60,000 men after reinforcements arrive from Africa. The Belorussian army is 80,000 strong and the Russians are also sending troops into the area which means that a total force of 300,000 men could be deployed for offensive action: Major Wagner Buildup in Belarus | Ukrainian Advances | Personal Account 07/15/23 - YouTube 3 min 49 secs onward. Could there be an offensive from Belarus? Larry Johnson believes this to be a feint in order to lure Ukrainian forces away from other parts of the front. https://sonar21.com/what-is-the-russian-military-doing/
I saw a report from a Ukrainian source (via the MoA) that the Russians have 100,000 men, 900 tanks and 370 MLRS in the Lyman-Kupyansk Direction: https://t.me/remylind21/5261. These figures could be exaggerated and are not confirmed by the Russians who never provide numbers of their own forces. Alexander Mercouris also reported a 3 kilometer Russian advances in this area.
The Fronts
Zaporizhe
The Ukrainians have been trying to break through towards Robotino but many of their attacks have failed so far. But they have managed to capture a field or two. The Ukrainians are attacking in small groups of infantry supported by two tanks and a few AFGs. Sometimes they are attacking with infantry only. The Military Chronicle claims that Russia is not responding in kind to the intense Ukrainian artillery bombardment. It also claims that whereas Ukrainian troops are being rotated, Russian troops are not. So, there appears to be a problem with bringing Russian reinforcements onto the battlefield according to this report.
See: https://voenhronika.ru/publ/vojna_na_ukraine/60
The Vremevsky Ledge area of the Zaporizhe front was attacked by the Ukrainians as part of their ‘offensive’ which started on June 4th. They have suffered many casualties here for very little reward in terms of territory. At the moment the Russians appear to have the initiative and are regaining some ground previously lost.
Artemovsk (Bakhmut)
The Ukrainians continue to attack on the flanks of Artemovsk and at one point managed to capture the heights at Klischiivka on the southern flank. However, some reports suggest that the Russians have recaptured some of this lost ground. Anyway, one of the reasons I am not including a detailed sitrep here is because the situation on the ground can change frequently and the fog of war often obscures the real situation. On the 21st July Ukrainian attacks in this area were repulsed.
Kharkiv
The Russians have made two important breakthroughs to the west of Karmasynivka (South of Kupyansk) on the right (west) bank of the river. Two bridgeheads have been formed less than a kilometre apart and the Russians are seeking to connect the two. This move will permit the Russians to expand their bridgehead with fresh troops. According to Weeb and other sources the Russians have 100,000 troops and 900 tanks in this area - so an offensive could develop here. The Russians are in a good position to launch attacks on Kupyansk and Krasny Lyman which is worrying for the Ukrainians who are reinforcing the area.
Ugledar
The Ukrainians launched an attack here on 21st July and lost 3 tanks and 3 AFVs before they were beaten back. The attacking forces were attempting to cross a minefield without mine clearing equipment and several vehicles were destroyed by mines. This 3 minute clip shows some of the action:
Avdeevka
The Russians are attempting to surround this city as they did with Bakhmut (Artemovsk). But strong Ukrainian reinforcements are making progress really difficult for them with a number of failed offensive actions. But it is the Russians who are on the front foot here at the moment.
Marinka
The Russians are making slow progress here and are now capturing ground that has been in Ukrainian hands since 2014.
The Economic War
The Grain Deal
The Deal expired on the 17th July and there are no signs that Russia is planning to renew the arrangement. The West has failed to allow Russian grain and fertilizer to be exported sanctions free as promised and Ukraine has been using the grain shipping lanes to attack Russian vessels protecting the Turkstream pipeline in the Black Sea and to conduct drone attacks on Crimea. It is also believed that Ukraine was using these shipping lanes to smuggle arms into the country. Furthermore, grain and fertilizer that should have been delivered to poor countries was getting no further than the EU. I do not blame Russia for withdrawing from the deal but this will annoy Erdogan and will provide the basis for Western legacy media propaganda which will blame Russia for starving the world or some such nonsense. If you would like to know more about the grain deal and the prospects of renewal have a look at this article: https://sputnikglobe.com/20230715/clock-running-out-on-black-sea-grain-deal-what-are-prospects-for-its-extension-1111892660.html. I have seen reports that Turkiye and Russia may be able to thrash out a deal between them so that Russia can export its grain for the market and provide poor countries with free grain. Let’s hope this can be done. TelSUR is reporting that Russia will deal directly with Africa over the supply of grain (46 secs):
A Russian MoD spokesman has announced that: ‘all vessels traveling in the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be considered as potential carriers of military cargo’. Ukraine has therefore been cut off from all shipping and the Russians appears to be taking their gloves off as many have been urging them to do for some time. Russia has destroyed nearly all the port facilities capable of facilitating the transport of grain in Odesa and Nikolaev but has left some port facilities intact. According to Dima (The Military Summary Channel), this suggests that Russia could be open to resurrecting the deal if it can get the West to guarantee that it will keep their part of the bargain.
If you’d like some detailed discussion and analysis of the grain deal and the Odesa attacks have a look at this from The Duran. Alexander Mercouris provides an excellent historical summary of the grain deal within the first ten minutes of this video.
On the subject of grain, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia are calling for the ban on imports of Ukrainian grain to be extended from September 15th until December 31st. Ukrainian imports would flood the market thereby reducing the price farmers in these countries can charge for grain: negatively impacting on their livelihoods.
Ukraine’s Economy is Collapsing
Ukraine’s trade deficit is growing fast and its agricultural sector is close to collapse. Without Western aid the collapse would already have happened. This is no surprise really.
Politics
Lavrov To Attend BRICS Summit in August
Putin has decided not to attend the BRICS Summit in South Africa next month and will send Sergei Lavrov in his stead. Putin may have thought that he was placing South Africa in a difficult position because it accepts the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court and would therefore have been obliged to arrest him. I don’t think the South Africans would have arrested Putin but they would have attracted much criticism for failing to do so. Putin will, of course, attend the ‘video conference’ sessions of the Summit.
Erdogan Annoyed
Sleepy Joe Biden has annoyed Recep Erdogan by backtracking on his ‘promise’ to provide ‘up to date’ F16s to replace his ageing air fleet. The Duran boys believe that the fighter jets are more important to him than his alleged desire for EU membership or his request that Sweden cleanses itself of support for Kurdish terrorists. Erdogan and Biden don’t get on, apparently. Biden is an obnoxious character in private and Erdogan has been known to ruffle a few feathers in China and elsewhere, so it’s no surprise that they should have fallen out at Vilnius. Some reports claim that Turkiye will support Sweden’s NATO application in return for a large IMF loan that is desperately needed. As I said last time, Erdogan will, sooner or later, have to choose sides. Sitting on the fence too long has its risks.
Ben Wallace Resigns
After criticising Zelensky at Vilnius for treating NATO like ‘Amazon’, Ben Wallace, the UK’s Defence Secretary, has announced that he will be resigning in September, giving up politics altogether. Everyone will now be asking: ‘did he fall or was he pushed?’. Or ‘is this a sign of disunity among NATO countries?’. It could be both or it could be neither: I have no idea. However, if NATO is attempting to present a united and coherent front with everyone singing from the same boring hymn sheets it does not convince from where I am sitting. It appears that many Western politicians appear to be getting annoyed with each other and with the great Z.
Rumen Radev Blames Ukraine for War
Further signs of disunity arose out of Z’s recent visit to Bulgaria (A NATO member). In a public statement after the meeting on July 14th, the President of Bulgaria blamed Ukraine for the war and for the enormous cost that European countries have paid for it. According to the Hindustan Times (3 mins):
CELAC - EU Summit
The Community of Latin American and Caribbean Countries (CELAC) met with the EU at this summit in Brussels amid great expectations. The Summit finished on the 18th July and discussed cooperation on Climate Change and trade agreements - among other things. Characteristically, the EU tried to get the Latin American countries to sign a joint statement condemning Russia but they refused ‘emphatically’. Instead, the joint statement issued after the summit included this passage on Ukraine: ‘We express deep concern on the ongoing war against Ukraine, which continues to cause immense human suffering and is exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy, constraining growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, heightening energy and food insecurity and elevating financial stability risks. In this sense, we support the need for a just and sustainable peace. We reiterate equally our support for the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the efforts of the UNSG to secure its extension. We support all diplomatic efforts aimed at a just and sustainable peace in line with the UN charter’. Here’s the complete statement for anyone who is interested: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/65920/st12000-en23.pdf
The Latin American countries failed to obtain a commitment from the EU to push for an end sanctions on Cuba.
Putin Popularity
In a poll of nearly 66,000 people which asked who would you prefer as president or prime minister the results were as follows:
Biden 4.7%; Trudeau 7%; Sunak 10% Putin 77.5%
This poll was conducted on David Kurten’s Twitter account. Kurten is a British politician who also posted poll results for March (11,000 people):
Biden 2.7%; Macron 3.1%; Zelensky 8.5%; Putin 85.7%
I am not sure how many of the people taking part in these polls would have been followers of David Kurten and therefore likely to share his views. So I am including this in the interests of fun rather than science. However, it should be noted that the figures for Putin are roughly the same as those derived from recent independent polls of the Russian people.
Protests
Old Style German Lefties
Protests against NATO and the US decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine took place in Germany over the weekend. As an old style lefty I recognize these people. They are a similar age to myself and probably reject the Woke liberalism of what currently passes for ‘the left’. There weren’t many of them unfortunately and very few were youngsters:
The Changed Narrative
For a long time I have been reporting here with regard to the changing narrative about the war. The legacy media narrative has been trying to convince the public that Ukraine is winning since the start of the SMO. In recent months this has begun to change to reflect the realities of the battlefield. But it has been a slow process. Some key Western figures have resisted the change - in public at least - and appear to believe that the false narrative somehow has an impact on reality. It doesn’t. It may shape perception but that’s not the same thing. Even now, when Ukraine’s offensive has been demonstrably defeated, the legacy media is promoting a narrative claiming that the Ukrainians are now fighting a war of attrition that will wear down the Russians eventually. Other MSM stories claim that Russia’s economy will soon collapse leading to civil unrest and regime change. This is all nonsense of course but it serves the purpose of keeping hope alive, keeping NATO allies on board and maintaining the flow of weapons and money to Ukraine. But Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition against Russia and even some Western commentators have accepted that Russia’s expenditure of ammunition is many times greater than that of the Ukrainians. Some also accept that the Western munitions cupboard is bare - as I have discussed above. Many have written about this conflict between narrative and reality, including b of the MoA: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/07/ukraine-sitrep-reality-is-defeating-the-war-narrative.html.
If Robert Clark of The Telegraph can write an article such as this, we can be fairly certain that the Ukraine is winning narrative has gone forever: https://archive.ph/dH01O
That’s it for another week.
Best wishes
Rob