Yevgeny Prigozhin
Yo will all have heard about the Prigozhin 'coup' in which he led up to 8,000 (though probably much fewer) of his Wagnerians in an open rebellion. It failed miserably after less than 24 hours but has generated more discussion and speculation among commentators than anything I have seen since the SMO began. I should provide some background.
Prigozhin spent 9 years in prison for smuggling around the time the USSR fell in 1991. When he came out of prison Russia was a very different place and Prigozhin became involved in the catering business before joining the Wagner Paramilitary Company (PMC) as a manager. Wagner is a similar organisation to the French Foreign Legion in that it is under the control of government but has a degree of independence. Both organisations employ ex-convicts.
To cut a long story short, Prigozhin came to prominence through his social media posts as the Wagnerians battled for control of Bakhmut over the winter/spring. During this time it became apparent that Prigozhin was not happy with the way the war was being conducted. When his friend, journalist Vladlen Tatarsky, was assassinated in St. Petersburg Prigozhin wanted Russia to take the gloves off even if that mean high civilian casualties. Putin refused.
In some rather bizarre videos in which he employed Russian and Ukrainian corpses as props, he used social media to criticise the Russian MOD, particularly Sergei Shoigu (defence minister). He made complaints about not having sufficient ammunition and was critical at the slow pace of the war, blaming Shoigu and General Gerasimov for this. Prigozhin was very popular with the Russian people. While this was going on, commentators were divided between those who thought Prigozhin's antics were all theatre: a form of trolling conducted with Putin's approval and those who thought he had gone mad. Three important things must be noted here. First, he was never critical of Putin. Second, he was critical of the West and in particular the CIA who he believed was responsible for his journalist friend's death. Third, he claimed that he had no political ambition. After Bakhmut was liberated the Wagner forces were resting and refitting inside Ukraine.
Late on the 23rd June Prigozhin persuaded a number of Wagner troops to go with him to Rostov on Don in pursuit of Segei Shoigu and General Gerasimov: his avowed enemies. Estimates vary on the numbers involved but there were no more than 8,000 and none of these were officers. Thus, there was no danger of the rebellion succeeding. Wagner did not 'occupy' Rostov as the legacy media is claiming but was accompanied by regular Russian troops. Prigozhin's soldiers did occupy the military headquarters in the city. Prigozhin then joined some Wagner units and proceed towards Moscow - but these numbered only several hundred in a convoy that halted many miles before reaching the city. I have seen no evidence that other actors were involved in the 'rebellion' apart from Prigozhin and his Wagnerians. Prigozhin wanted Sergei Shoigu (Russian Minister of Defence) and General Gerasimov to be removed from their posts because, he claimed, they have been betraying Russia. He called his action a 'march for justice' which was designed to protect Putin from his enemies in the MOD rather than seeking to replace him - or so he says. He even said that Russian troops had shelled the Wagner group (we have no proof of this). Prigozhin has also been spreading misinformation about under-reporting of Russian losses and of Ukrainian advance to Tokmak. Ukraine has definitely not advanced anywhere near Tokmak. He also tried to claim that Ukraine had not been shelling Donbass since 2014.
Here are some of Prigozhin's claims from recent videos:
Ukraine had no intention of invading the Donbass back in Feb 2022
Z was ready to negotiate, but the RU turned him down.
DNR and LNR shelled by Russia (rather than Ukraine) since 2014
Russian losses under-reported 10x. Russian army is being ground down by Ukraine
RU deliberately under-utilising its military potential against Ukraine.
Russian state is infiltrated by traitors.
Wagner represents patriotic opposition with the aim of cleaning the house and waging total war against the West.
On the one hand, much of this fits with Western propaganda - which suggests that he could have been 'bought' by the West but then he talks about waging war against the West after clearing out traitors. There is a huge amount of speculation about these actions by Wagner. Some, like Scott Ritter, believe that Prigozhin is a CIA asset employed to cause disruption; others believed that he has simply gone mad or is seeking political power in Russia while a few believe this is pure Maskirovka (psyop) which will provide Putin with justification for Marshal law and full scale mobilisation to match that of Ukraine. Some even suggest that this is part of a Putin plan to get rid of Shoigu (who has stayed in post following the incident). Prigozhin was due to sign an agreement with the Russian MOD in which he would have been required to surrender his control over the Wagner group to the Russian military - which is another possible motivating factor for his actions. The legacy media is calling this a coup but it is no such thing because Putin is not being attacked or criticised but it is a rebellion of sorts. Prigozhin himself denies that he intended to overthrow the government.
I woke up to this story on the morning of the 24th June and by the time I went to bed it was over.
Belarus president Lukashenko intervened (probably at Putin's request) and successfully negotiated with Prigozhin, who by this time was on his way to Moscow. An agreement was reached in which Prigozhin escaped punishment. Lukashenko and Prigozhin have known each other for years. Prigozhin has now moved to Belarus, probably as part of a deal that allowed him to escape prosecution. No charges were brought against Prigozhin or any of his Wagnerians who all returned to their field bases. It is not clear at this point whether these troops will be allowed to serve in the Wagner group or in the regular Russian military. Camps are being constructed in Belarus to accommodate Wagnerians and it is assumed that the 'rebels' will go there. These developments do not support the claim that Prigozhin was a CIA asset attempting a coup. If either of these claims were true he would not be going to Belarus. I'm still going with the Prigozhin is disgruntled/mad theory. I have no doubt that in his eyes the Russian MOD - especially Shoigu and Gerasimov - had acted incompetently and he believed he had a grievance. However, I also believe that the war has taken its toll on Prigozhin and that his view of things is distorted by mental illness. This was not a coup but a little rebellion or mutiny. For the moment, and unless evidence emerges to the contrary, I do not believe this was any form of Maskirovka.
For those who are interested, Larry Johnson provides some intriguing speculation that Wagner's 'rebellion' or mutiny was a psyops that enabled Russia to conduct troop movements needed for its offensive under NATO's sniffing noses. Russia's Academy Award Winning Performance For Best Coup, Prigozhin Scores Best Actor - A Son of the New American Revolution (sonar21.com) - Short read. If you are interested in an impartial analysis of the 'coup' v 'psyop' explanations have a look at this from 'Kalibrated': “Coup or Psyop” Kalibrated Episode #50 - YouTube 30 mins. Colonel MacGregor rejects the idea of a coup or a psyop and takes the view that Prigozhin was annoyed at the slow pace of the war and held Shoigu and Gerasimov accountable: INTERVIEW: Blowhard runs out of puff | MOATS with George Galloway Ep 250 - YouTube 15 mins.
Putin must take the blame for this because he should have acted once Prigozhin started coming out with some absurd criticisms of the Russian miliary command - especially Sergei Shoigu and General Gerasimov. Some of the videos he created appeared to have been made by a very disturbed mind. But hindsight is a wonderful thing. The really big question being raised here is why did Prigozhin do it. Could he have been convinced that he was playing his part in a coup that was likely to succeed - as some believe? Or, could his motivations have been more personal or even financial?
According to some, this is a bad 'optical' setback for Russia - but I don't think it's much more than that. The West may have become more emboldened but not much has changed on the ground. The Ukrainian offensive is still failing miserably with massive Ukrainian losses. The West is having increasing difficulties in meeting Ukraine's demand for ammo, equipment and even manpower. In sum: Russia continues to win the war of attrition and a few thousand Wagnerian renegades will not change that. Furthermore, since Putin dealt with the rebellion quickly the 'optical' damage was limited.
The quick resolution to this dispute which allowed Putin to take some credit for being statesmanlike has actually stolen the West's thunder and dashed all its hopes for regime change - which was never on the cards anyway. The faces of presenters in the Western media display this disappointment which amounts to a dent in their morale. See, for example: Media Cries As Wagner "Coup" Against Putin Fails - YouTube 1.27 mins. The Prigozhin 'affair' which began many months ago, is one of the most bizarre I have witnessed in following this conflict. I don't think it will have any significant impact on the SMO and any morale boost to the West was short-lived while there is some relief among pro-Russian circles. In the eyes of the Western press, the Wagnerians went from 'terrorists' to 'freedom fighters' then back to 'terrorists' in under 24 hours. Now that speaks volumes about the legacy media.
The legacy media is making the most of the 'coup', suggesting that Russia is really unstable and Putin weak and no one is talking about the disastrous Ukrainian 'counter offensive'.
I dare say I will be reporting on this at some point in the future as new evidence comes to light. The number of casualties involved in the rebellion is not clear and is a matter of dispute.
This 'photo' sums up the dashed hopes of the West when they realised they would not be getting their juicy 'regime change' followed by Russian 'collapse into anarchy' and ripe for the picking by Western vultures: https://yt3.ggpht.com/IbLgMMMg1go1UTVEqapIuxJ3_zNcVNjRGAhgIxSQAMtRPRffQ8BsH_MVhUfOOTxv6eRzx-ERHRKZiWs=s640-nd-v1
I have decided to take a break for the sake of my sanity and because I need to get on with some other things. Therefore my next Update will be submitted on July 7th unless, as some have predicted, the Russian Offensive begins in earnest.
Best wishes
Rob