The Middle East - Too Painful for Words
Some Observations
I have to confess that the precarious situation in the Middle East (ME) has taken much of my attention away from Ukraine and I thought that I should say something about it outside of the Update. I simply felt that I should talk about it, if only briefly, and I don’t want to make the Update too long.
In the view of a layman, WW3 is much more likely to originate in Israel-Palestine-Iran than it is to be sparked by the SMO. So, to ignore the ME would be tantamount to ignoring the ‘elephant in the room’: i.e. it deserves more attention than I have given it. The extension of Israel’s genocide to Lebanon, the barbarism of the Israeli state, and, to an extent, its people, must elicit comment - even from someone who is producing a Ukraine Weekly Update. This week, I have spent as much time researching the Middle East conflict as I have on researching Ukraine. I think I have digested the views of most of the ‘enlightened’ commentators on this, including Crooke, Ritter, Johnson et al. I don’t think there is a consensus about what will happen in the future but everyone condemns what Israel is doing and judges that things will not end well for the poor Israelis. I will go along with that.
Many of us will be asking ‘when will Israel react?; what will it target?’ and ‘how will Iran respond?’ - etc. etc. I have even heard that Iran may have tested a nuclear device. This is indeed ‘squeaky bum time’.
At the moment, the ‘ground offensive’ into Southern Lebanon is not going well for the Israelis. I am following the action ‘live’ on a Palestinian Telegram Channel. It seems that the Israelis are trying to sell their ‘offensive’ by making raids across the border as Photo Opportunities. When the photos have been taken with an Israeli flag, the ‘invaders’ take their leave - as the Ukrainians have been doing. I can’t say that this is happening everywhere but it is happening as far as I can tell. The Israelis, according to this channel, are taking more casualties than Hezbollah.
But while the Israelis are killing civilians in Beirut and elsewhere, Hezbollah is making Israelis suffer with rocket attacks. These attacks have been joined by groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.
The Palestinian channel provides lots of detail, even naming all the martyrs that have been killed. In spite of the horrors they have suffered, these people are resilient and philosophical about it all. They appear to take pride in their martyrs, who are also their relatives or friends in some cases. There is a togetherness here that we don’t find in the West. These people are not concerned about gender pronouns or global warming; they are engaged in the everyday problem of survival and a sort of wisdom can be obtained from them. Best Rob
" I simply felt that I should talk about it..."
As I've mentioned before, I have the opposite approach to Ukraine these days. Ukraine is boring because the outcome is certain, and there is zero indication that the US or NATO are going to try to stem the defeat. The Russians appear to intend to keep plodding on until the last Ukrainian conscript is dead and they can walk to Kiev, which means the "war" - such as it is - will continue for months past where everyone including me thought it would be "over".
In short, as I say, it's boring. Whereas the Middle East war shows every sign of heating up quickly, becoming an utter disaster for everyone involved, and possibly could rise to nuclear WWII even faster than Ukraine could. This makes it the obvious choice for anyone concerned about international affairs and how they might affect one locally (WWIII will give everyone a "bad day.")
"most of the ‘enlightened’ commentators on this, including Crooke, Ritter, Johnson et al. "
You didn't mention me. I'm shocked...shocked...! :-) (Not that I claim to be on par with any of them - although I do frequently argue with all of them.)
"I have even heard that Iran may have tested a nuclear device."
That's why you need to follow me closely. :-) I've been debunking that nonsense ever since I first read about it. It's so obviously a planted propaganda ploy to justify the upcoming US-Israeli strike on Iran that it's amazing that even Alastair Crooke and The Cradle appears to have been taken in by it. Someone commented to me just now that he tried to trace back the report but all he found was blogs and links to unnamed sources. That's almost a dead giveaway that it's a planted story.
I heard today Hezbollah dropped 100 missiles on Haifa. No idea if that's true. Bernhard mentioned it over at MoA.
One thing that has become interesting, to me at least, is that there does seem to be a sharp difference of opinion emerging between some of the alternative pundits that you, me and everyone else follows because of total propaganda in the MainSteamMedia.
The division is this: Does the tail wag the dog or, as is usually the case does the dog wag the tail?
It seems that the consensus in the ex intelligence community on Nima’s YouTube channel Dialogue Works like Larry Sanders and Ray McGovern believe that Netanyahu is playing the US. He is out of control.
It looks like they do not want to believe that an organisation that they used to work for was anything less than “decent in the old days” and that Israel has gone “rogue”.
Meanwhile, people like Michael Hudson, who has direct experience of policy decisions with Israel since the 60s says that what is happening now is part of a plan. Organised in the US in meetings he was in 40 or 50 years ago.
A very interesting divergence in the resistance to all.
Is America in charge of this genocide or not?
Some people think so. Others do not. I would say to Ray McGovern, if I met him and who is my favourite current commentator, what did you think the CIA that you worked for was doing?
Only intelligence gathering? That was obviously not true in the early 50s in Guatemala.