My First Ukraine Update

14th May 2022

This is the first Update I have kept: it may not be the first one written but I thought I’d share it, warts and all, to commemorate the 2nd anniversary. It was distributed to five family and friends back in May 2022.

So much is happening at the moment that it is hard to keep pace with it all.

On the ground, the Russian capture of Popasnaya (not mentioned by the MSM) has enabled an advance North which will allow it to cut off all supply routes to the Ukrainian troops being surrounded at Syeverodonesk and Lysychansk.  Some are saying that the battle of the Donbass could be over in a week or two.  Many Ukrainian troops are demoralised, hungry, shell shocked and being deserted by their commanders in some cases.  If the pointless 'stand and fight' orders were not in place, they would have retreated by now - but that option is no longer available.  On the other hand, according to the military people I consult, the fighting is ferocious and the Russians are not getting all their own way with Ukrainian forces fighting bravely and determinedly in many cases.  The Russians are also taking heavy losses in some battles.  But looking at the overall picture strategically, the Ukrainian situation in the Donbass is hopeless - in spite of what you may hear from the MSM.  The battle for Snake Island was a terrible and costly defeat for the Ukrainian forces (not for the Russians) and even British Intelligence is saying that the so called 'counteroffensive' East of Kharkiv was nothing more than Ukrainian forces occupying land vacated by the Russians as part of troop movements NOT prompted by Ukrainian movements.  There is increased bombardment of military targets around Odesa, including the use of hypersonic missiles, which suggests that this is where the Russians will be going soon.

Finland and Sweden's attempts to join NATO have been dashed by Turkey's president Erdogan who is saying that he opposed since terrorist organisations exist in both countries.  Meanwhile a Russian spokesman has said that if NATO troops or equipment enter Finland they will become a target for the Russian military.   Also - Finland may be without gas soon because it has refused to pay in rubles; the deadline was the 13th May.

The Poles are also coming out with vitriolic anti-Putin statements suggesting that the West should rid the world of evil 'Putinism'; that Putin is a bigger danger than Hitler; Russia is bent on conquering Europe and all that crap.

Former Russian president Medvedev (much more of a hawk than Putin) has warned the West that sanctions on Russia will rebound on it; causing logistical problems, including food supply problems, the closure of industries, including airlines.  Some states will experience famine, he said.  Overall, the sanctions will lead to the downfall of the West and the creation of a 'new fair world order' (a phrase being used by many Russian and Chinese diplomats).  Many of the experts I am following are saying exactly the same things. 

Sergey Lavrov, Russian's foreign minister, has now ruled out Ukraine membership of the EU.  Russia is clearly getting more intransigent due to the bellicose actions of the West and Zelensky's refusal to negotiate.

With regard to the oil embargo, we can breathe a sigh of relief for the moment because the EU is split on the issue with Hungary and German industrialists, among others, warning of the dangers of the embargo. Some are opposed to the whole sanctions package that the EU wants to introduce This is package number SIX!   I don't think that this is necessarily the end of the matter because the German Greens have huge political influence and are ideologically opposed to industry or anything else that emits CO2.  This is a case of ideology blinding people to reality.  But the EU is really split on this latest sanctions package.  Hungary, in spite of threats from the EU of a suspension of voting rights, is doubling down with support from some other central EU members, who will oppose this move.

One of the Russian gas pipelines to Europe has been turned off by Zelensky which will reduce supplies by one third.   The MSM may try to blame this on Russia so don't buy it.  But with some countries refusing to pay for gas in rubles it will be more difficult for countries such as Germany to sell its gas on to Poland or Bulgaria - because less gas will be coming through the pipelines.  This will also hit Germany's plan to fill up all its gas storage facilities to get it through the winter.

In the US, some Republicans are objecting to the $40 billion donation to Ukraine at a time when the country has huge problems of its own, including a dearth of baby formula, rampant inflation and an open border in the South.  Biden is obviously conforming to the Green New Deal and is stopping oil and gas exploration projects at a time when these things are desperately needed.  The anti-Russian rhetoric of the US neo-Cons is off the scale.  These people will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, Pole, Fin, Romanian etc. etc.  But opposition to US troop involvement is high.  More people in the US want Biden to step down than want Putin to do so.  A large majority wants the former while only a minority wants the latter.

In summary: things are just as unpredictable as ever, but I am not worried, as many are, of World War 3 as a hot war between the US and Russia.  That's not looking likely at the moment.  But World War 3 as proxy war and an economic war will continue to be fought, though the West is becoming increasingly aware of the negative effects sanctioning Russia is having and will have on the economies of its own states.  German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz has recently phoned Putin, possibly out of concern for where all this is going - and rightly so.  I have heard a rumour that even the Pentagon is calling for a ceasefire.  That will not happen - but the fact that the Pentagon has asked for this is, perhaps, a sign that the never ending war demanded by the neo-cons is looking increasingly problematic given the state of the actual land war.  The EU's hesitation on economic sanctions may be a sign that European politicians appear to be coming to terms with the fact that the economic war is also failing, along with the land war.  Russia may be declining to retaliate at present because it is has a greater awareness of the inter-dependent nature of Western and Eastern economies.  It will act when it is prudent to act since it is not driven by ideology or hatred.  Zelensky, who was asked by Boris to break off negotiations, may soon find himself being courted by wiser and more pragmatic council.  Finally, the divisions among the West's various protagonists on both sides of the Atlantic appear to be growing into huge cracks making any predictions impossible.  

I am, as ever, optimistic.

Best Rob